Where we are, where we thought we would be and where we think we're going...
NL East
Leader - Atlanta Braves
Prediction - Philadelphia Phillies (4.5 games back)
Projection - Atlanta Braves
The Phillies had a bizarre first half, but they could rally back to win the division if they make a trade for another starting pitcher and they get healthy. I picked the Braves as the sleeper of the NL, so I'm hardly surprised by their Spring surge, although it did not look to good when they were getting no-hit every other night in April. If they can keep getting production from their infield (Martin Prado, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones), they have enough pitching to close the deal.
NL Central
Leader - Cincinnati Reds
Prediction - St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 game back)
Projection - St. Louis Cardinals
I thought the Reds were a year away with Edinson Volquez on the shelf and Aroldis Chapman in the minors, but they have the best offense in the National League led by Joey Votto and the resurgent Scott Rolen. However, St. Louis is just a game back. Once Tony LaRussa sorts out his bullpen, the Cards star power will overpower the division.
NL West
Leader - San Diego Padres
Prediction - Colorado Rockies (2.0 games back)
Projection - Colorado Rockies
Like most "experts", I had the Padres buried in last with their two stars (Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell) donning new uniforms by next month. Instead, they've used a no-name pitching staff and a giant ballpark to stifle offenses in the year of the pitcher. Nevertheless, the Rockies and even the Dodgers and Giants have so much more talent on paper that someone will chase down the Pads in September.
NL Wild Card
Leader - Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies
Prediction - Atlanta Braves
Projection - Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves were considered a sleeper when I tabbed them to take the wild card, but now they are a division leader. While I like the Rockies to take the NL West, I'll settle on the two-time defending NL champs to grab the final playoff berth.
AL West
Leader - Texas Rangers
Prediction - LA Angels of Anaheim (4.5 games back)
Projection - Texas Rangers
Typically, I'd ignore the Rangers strong start because they tend to fade as the Texas heat wears them down late into the Summer. However, I'm encouraged by Josh Hamilton, who is back to his '08 dominance, and the trade for Cliff Lee. In the long run, they'll likely regret giving up Justin Smoak for a rental, but Lee should secure their first division title in over a decade.
AL Central
Leader - Chicago White Sox
Prediction - Chicago White Sox
Projection - Chicago White Sox
I was not looking so smart after an ugly start, but they've rebounded behind consistent pitching and a top 5 MVP half from Alex Rios. With Jake Peavy on the sidelines, the Twins and Tigers are ready to pounce, but GM Kenny Williams is always active at the trade deadline. He'll bring in a starting pitcher to fill the hole.
AL East
Leader - New York Yankees
Prediction - New York Yankees
Projection - New York Yankees
They are not nearly as exciting as last year's team, but they are better. They've won a major league leading 56 games to this point behind pitching, power and defense. Their starting rotation has accounted for a ridiculous 48 wins, which means they are getting deep into games and holding leads.
AL Wild Card
Leader - Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction - Boston Red Sox (3.0 games back)
Projection - Boston Red Sox
With all the injuries, maybe it's not the Red Sox year. On the other hand, they can only get healthier in the second half. The Rays are better on paper than practice. They have too many all-or-nothing bats plus suspect team chemistry. Whoever does better at the trade deadline will emerge from this two-horse race.
Playoffs
In the preseason, I went Yankees over Red Sox and Rockies over Phillies. I'll stick with my two World Series combatants, but now I like Yankees over Rangers and Rockies over Braves.
In the end, the Yankees should win one more for George.
Midseason Awards
AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera is putting up triple crown numbers, while Alex Rodriguez (preseason pick) looks old.
NL MVP - Joey Votto
He won't hold out, but he's holding up better than Chase Utley (my pick). Pujols should win another one with a strong finishing kick.
AL Cy Young - David Price
The young lefty could wear down as he reaches new innings heights, while Jon Lester (preseason pick) will be in the thick of it. CC Sabathia is known as a dominant second half pitcher, which is a scary thought considering he already has 12 wins.
NL Cy Young - Ubaldo Jimenez
I know wins are an overrated stat, but 15 at the break is absurd. Jimenez has shown signs of cracking, so look for Josh Johnson to steal the award away. I picked Roy Halladay in my preview.
AL Rookie - Brennan Boesch
The Tigers call-up has slugged his away into the middle of their lineup and the top of the rookie standings. I'll stick with my preseason choice, Neftali Feliz, to maintain dominance throughout the season.
NL Rookie - Jaime Garcia
The Cardinals pitcher has been greatly overshadowed by the NL's star-studded rookie class. He'll lose out in the end to Jason Heyward (my preseason pick) or more likely Stephen Strasburg.
AL Manager - Terry Francona
Considering the injuries and the horrific start, he has the Red Sox in a prime position to catch the Rays and/or the Yankees. Ozzie Guillen (preseason pick) will get his fair share of votes.
NL Manager - Bobby Cox
Some national writers suggested that a lesser known manager would have been fired based on the Braves April. There is a reason that Cox is not a lesser known manager. My preseason pick will take the award in his final year.
Ubaldo Jimenez (one of four no-hitters) has paced the field in the year of the pitcher.
