Where we are, where we thought we would be and where we think we're going...

NL East

Leader - Atlanta Braves

Prediction - Philadelphia Phillies (4.5 games back)

Projection - Atlanta Braves

The Phillies had a bizarre first half, but they could rally back to win the division if they make a trade for another starting pitcher and they get healthy.  I picked the Braves as the sleeper of the NL, so I'm hardly surprised by their Spring surge, although it did not look to good when they were getting no-hit every other night in April.  If they can keep getting production from their infield (Martin Prado, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones), they have enough pitching to close the deal.

NL Central

Leader - Cincinnati Reds

Prediction - St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 game back)

Projection - St. Louis Cardinals

I thought the Reds were a year away with Edinson Volquez on the shelf and Aroldis Chapman in the minors, but they have the best offense in the National League led by Joey Votto and the resurgent Scott Rolen.  However, St. Louis is just a game back.  Once Tony LaRussa sorts out his bullpen, the Cards star power will overpower the division.

NL West

Leader - San Diego Padres

Prediction - Colorado Rockies (2.0 games back)

Projection - Colorado Rockies

Like most "experts", I had the Padres buried in last with their two stars (Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell) donning new uniforms by next month.  Instead, they've used a no-name pitching staff and a giant ballpark to stifle offenses in the year of the pitcher.  Nevertheless, the Rockies and even the Dodgers and Giants have so much more talent on paper that someone will chase down the Pads in September. 

NL Wild Card

Leader - Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies

Prediction - Atlanta Braves

Projection - Philadelphia Phillies

The Braves were considered a sleeper when I tabbed them to take the wild card, but now they are a division leader.  While I like the Rockies to take the NL West, I'll settle on the two-time defending NL champs to grab the final playoff berth.

AL West

Leader - Texas Rangers

Prediction - LA Angels of Anaheim (4.5 games back)

Projection - Texas Rangers

Typically, I'd ignore the Rangers strong start because they tend to fade as the Texas heat wears them down late into the Summer.  However, I'm encouraged by Josh Hamilton, who is back to his '08 dominance, and the trade for Cliff Lee.  In the long run, they'll likely regret giving up Justin Smoak for a rental, but Lee should secure their first division title in over a decade.

AL Central

Leader - Chicago White Sox

Prediction - Chicago White Sox

Projection - Chicago White Sox

I was not looking so smart after an ugly start, but they've rebounded behind consistent pitching and a top 5 MVP half from Alex Rios.  With Jake Peavy on the sidelines, the Twins and Tigers are ready to pounce, but GM Kenny Williams is always active at the trade deadline.  He'll bring in a starting pitcher to fill the hole.

AL East

Leader - New York Yankees

Prediction - New York Yankees

Projection - New York Yankees

They are not nearly as exciting as last year's team, but they are better.  They've won a major league leading 56 games to this point behind pitching, power and defense.  Their starting rotation has accounted for a ridiculous 48 wins, which means they are getting deep into games and holding leads. 

AL Wild Card

Leader - Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction - Boston Red Sox (3.0 games back)

Projection - Boston Red Sox

With all the injuries, maybe it's not the Red Sox year.  On the other hand, they can only get healthier in the second half.  The Rays are better on paper than practice.  They have too many all-or-nothing bats plus suspect team chemistry.  Whoever does better at the trade deadline will emerge from this two-horse race.

Playoffs

In the preseason, I went Yankees over Red Sox and Rockies over Phillies.  I'll stick with my two World Series combatants, but now I like Yankees over Rangers and Rockies over Braves.

In the end, the Yankees should win one more for George.

Midseason Awards

AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is putting up triple crown numbers, while Alex Rodriguez (preseason pick) looks old.

NL MVP - Joey Votto

He won't hold out, but he's holding up better than Chase Utley (my pick).  Pujols should win another one with a strong finishing kick.

AL Cy Young - David Price

The young lefty could wear down as he reaches new innings heights, while Jon Lester (preseason pick) will be in the thick of it.  CC Sabathia is known as a dominant second half pitcher, which is a scary thought considering he already has 12 wins.

NL Cy Young - Ubaldo Jimenez

I know wins are an overrated stat, but 15 at the break is absurd.  Jimenez has shown signs of cracking, so look for Josh Johnson to steal the award away.  I picked Roy Halladay in my preview.

AL Rookie - Brennan Boesch

The Tigers call-up has slugged his away into the middle of their lineup and the top of the rookie standings.  I'll stick with my preseason choice, Neftali Feliz, to maintain dominance throughout the season.

NL Rookie - Jaime Garcia

The Cardinals pitcher has been greatly overshadowed by the NL's star-studded rookie class.  He'll lose out in the end to Jason Heyward (my preseason pick) or more likely Stephen Strasburg.

AL Manager - Terry Francona

Considering the injuries and the horrific start, he has the Red Sox in a prime position to catch the Rays and/or the Yankees.  Ozzie Guillen (preseason pick) will get his fair share of votes.

NL Manager - Bobby Cox

Some national writers suggested that a lesser known manager would have been fired based on the Braves April.  There is a reason that Cox is not a lesser known manager.  My preseason pick will take the award in his final year. 

Ubaldo Jimenez (one of four no-hitters) has paced the field in the year of the pitcher.