From soup to bowl, here's everything you need to know for Sunday...

  • Peyton Manning is awesome.  Remember, some people only watch one football game a year.  They need to know these things.  He is very, very, very awesome...in my expert opinion.
  • Drew Brees is also awesome, but in a shorter, less awesome way than Peyton.  Actually, Brees never hit his stride against Minnesota in the NFC Championship game, so he is lucky to be here.  They have proven they can win games without Brees being at his very best...but not this game.  They need to find the end zone at least four times, so Brees must find his comfort zone quickly in Miami.
  • Manning is a 1st and 4th quarter specialist, which did not really play out against the Jets.  Fans and analysts have a one game attention span, but the truth remains that this is not an all-world Colts offense.  The Saints will get some stops in the middle of the game, but Manning needs to get ahead early and close late to raise his second Super Bowl trophy.
  • The Saints have a better offense than the Colts.  If the game is a shootout, which most experts believe is New Orleans only chance, they have the advantage unless Manning gets the ball last with a chance to win.  Indy scored 30+ points in 8 of their 18 games.  NoLa scored 30+ points in 11 of their 18 games, including both playoff games.  
  • In previous years, New Orleans would not have made it here with Brees struggling as he did against the Vikings.  That speaks to their improved defense.  However, they have also dramatically upgraded their running game, so they don't blow leads, which used to be a huge problem.  Pierre Thomas is the key in that area and he will be the difference maker if the Saints get a two-score lead in the 4th quarter.
  • Saints coach Sean Payton loves all the toys in his offense, but like an NBA coach, he needs to pare down his rotation for the big game.  Get rid of rookie short-yardage back Lynell Hamilton.  If you need a yard, go with Thomas or Brees, not some rookie who has not worked up a sweat yet. 
  • The Colts running game stepped up against the Jets and will be dared to do so again.  Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown will have their opportunities against six or seven man fronts and Manning will call their number.  While they'll need to make some plays, their first priority has to be ball security.  If the Vikings runners and receivers had held onto the ball, every single note so far would've been on Brett Favre.  The Saints NEED turnovers.  If the Colts play a clean game, they'll win going away.
  • Reggie Bush is the game's obvious offensive X-factor.  He is a rhythm player, who thrives off early success.  Sean Payton made a huge mistake by relegating Bush to decoy duty in the first half against Minnesota.  If Bush gets his swagger going, he plays like Superman.  If something bad happens, he turns into Clark Kent in a hurry.  The Colts would be wise to keep him out of the phone booth in the first quarter.
  • Dwight Freeney is the defensive X-factor.  With the NFL rules the way they are, you cannot be a good pass defense without putting pressure on the quarterback unless you have three Darrelle Revises.  The Colts defensive strength is generating pressure from their front four and forcing turnovers through interceptions or strip sacks.  A healthy Freeney against Jermon Bushrod was the Colts best chance to disrupt the Saints offense.  If Freeney cannot go and the Saints can help out on Robert Mathis on the other end, Brees will carve up the Colts secondary like Emeril Lagasse ("Bam!") would a fried turkey.
  • Watch out for cheap shots!  The Saints need and want to get to Manning so badly that they might hit him even if they don't get there.  They knocked out Kurt Warner with a blind-side hit on an interception return.  It wasn't cheap, but it wasn't exactly kosher.  They buried Favre with a high-low hit that made Tom Brady's knee swell up all the way in New England.  The Saints are comin' and they're not afraid of a personal foul or two.  DC Gregg Williams is willing to sacrifice a few battles to win the war. 
  • This year's Max McGee nominees (or for those who have no sense of football history, the David Tyree Award) for the Super Bowl hero to emerge from obscurity are the Saints Garrett Hartley and the Colts Mike Hart.  Hartley booted the game-winning kick to land NoLa in the Super Bowl and he might be presented with the opportunity to do it again if the Saints get the ball last.  Addai tends to get hurt in physical games and Hart is a more trustworthy blocker than Donald Brown, so don't be surprised if the Michigan man is the go-to guy in the 4th quarter.  Of course, if I could predict this award, it wouldn't be a surprise.
  • With all the publicity, there is little chance that Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is not holding the MVP trophy at the end of the game.  Bush could pull off a Desmond Howard.  Dallas Clark could pull a Deion Branch.  Jabari Greer could pull a Larry Brown, but that makes Peyton Neil O'Donnel, so don't bet on it.
  • All the intangible advantages save for experience go to the Saints.  They have the better coach, better special teams and all the positive karma.
  • If you've followed my football picks all season, I've been burned time after time picking against Manning.  I won't do it again.  The Colts will protect the ball and dismantle the Saints defense.  Colts 34, Saints 24. 
  • Ahh, screw that!  The Saints are a live underdog with the whole country behind them.  Saints 45, Colts 34.  "Believe it and it will happen" - Michael Strahan.