When was the last time a great team won the Super Bowl? Unless you truly admire winning ugly (the Patriots dynasty before Randy Moss), the 2002-03 Tampa Bay Bucs were the closest thing to a dominant champion in the last decade.
As the expression goes, it's better to be lucky than good. Luck is helpful, but these days, it's better to be hot than good.
Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers solved their offensive line issues as the season progressed, so their running game and pass-protection peaked for the playoffs (like this year's Packers).
In 07-08, the Giants survived the turmoil of trying to make the playoffs and shed the choking label with strong performances in the last two weeks of the regular season (like this year's Cowboys).
And in 05-06, the Steelers and their second-year quarterback snuck into the playoffs with a veteran defense only to steal game-after-game en route to a championship (could be this year's Ravens).
We can argue forever about who the best team is each year, but all that matters is who holds up the trophy. Here's the list of the hottest teams by league:
AFC
1) San Diego Chargers
The Bolts have the luxury of being hot and great. They've won 11 straight games, including their mail-in Week 17 contest vs. Washington. The bad news is that the bye week slows down their momentum. Three of the last four champs played on the playoff's opening week.
2) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are actually not hot, but they've kicked away so many games this season that they have the best chance at catching fire for a playoff run. They did win three of four down the stretch. They are +130 in point differential this season, which is amazing. Think about it. They are basically a .500 team (9-7), yet they outscored their opponents by 130 points (the 14-2 Colts are +109). The 2005-06 Steelers got all their breaks in the postseason, maybe the Ravens are equally as due.
3) Indianapolis Colts
They won 14 straight and took their foot off the gas. Unlike the team's below them on the list, they avoided crushing injuries down the stretch, so they have the ability to pick up where their starters left off. We are only at #3 on the list, but I'm already out of good feelings. The Colts brass cowered with a chance to make history, which is terrible for sports karma.
4) New York Jets
On the surface, they look the part. They closed the season by winning five of six, including a confidence-boosting 37-0 thrashing of their playoff opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals. However, they never solved their problem. When the Giants got hot in 2007-08, Eli Manning closed the regular season with the best game of his career against the perfect Patriots, which buoyed him to new heights in the postseason. The Jets won despite their quarterback Mark Sanchez. Unless he does something (and there's no evidence to surmise he will), the Jets cannot win four straight games against the NFL's best.
5) New England Patriots
They've been on a well-earned (SpyGate) negative karma streak. In Week 16, they showed flashes of their best ball when they hammered Jacksonville 35-7. A week later, Wes Welker blows out his knee on a non-contact play. They don't have the defensive leadership or offensive firepower to streak to glory.
6) Cincinnati Bengals
They peaked in Week 10 when they locked down the division by sweeping the defending champion Steelers. Since then, they've lost 4 of 7 and LB Rey Maualuga to injury. Not to mention, they have to be mentally drained by the deaths of Mike Zimmer's wife and Chris Henry. Their resolve will get them a playoff win, but they played their best football in the season's first two months.
NFC
1) Dallas Cowboys
They are screaming for attention. In the last three weeks, they've knocked off the perfect Saints in New Orleans and backed it up with two shutouts and a division title. They'll get the Eagles at home, who they just beat 24-0 in the same fixture. After they dust Philly, they'll use their pass rush to expose Minnesota's greatest weakness and then beat the Saints again to go to the Super Bowl. Is that a prediction? No, but it's conceivable.
2) Green Bay Packers
They were a one flaw team that seems to have plugged their hole. With Aaron Rodgers upright, their offense is unstoppable. Meanwhile, Charles Woodson is playing the best ball of his NFL career and they get after the quarterback. They won 7 of 8 down the stretch, including a 33-7 win over the Cards in Glendale last week.
3) Minnesota Vikings
Did they right the ship with a morale-boosting pounding of the hapless Giants Sunday? It could go either way. They seemed to find their offense in the second half of the Week 16 loss to the Bears. If the Saints go down, they could play every game at home until the Super Bowl. They are the swing team in the NFC in regards to hotness.
4) Arizona Cardinals
They are not streaking one way or the other. With a healthy Kurt Warner, they play with a quiet confidence that mirrors his personality. The negative signs are obvious, but don't dismiss the positive potential. They made a similar run last year and just a month ago, the Cards carved up 10-1 Minnesota 30-17 in front of a primetime audience. They seem to play when they want to play, which is right about now.
5) Philadelphia Eagles
They've won 6 of their last 7, but the Week 17 shutout looms large. From the preseason, we've questioned their leadership without the late Jim Johnson and the inimitable Brian Dawkins. They have the talent to get hot and win it all, but they lack the grit it takes to be a champion.
6) New Orleans Saints
Thank God they're not undefeated!!! This is so much better. They've managed 27 points combined in the last two games against the vaunted Panthers and Bucs after the Cowboys demystified their offense in Week 15. They peaked in Week 12 against the Patriots and have been playing not to lose ever since. Sean Payton has a bye week to help his squad rediscover their swagger or the Packers will come in and bury them from the get-go.
