Here's the breakdown of each staff:
Aces
CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee
I'll continue to say it as it continues to hold true: You have to beat CC to beat the Yankees. He is the centerpiece of this team in a short series. The Yankees will likely throw him in games 1, 4 and 7 (the latter two being on short rest).
Lee is a left-handed power-pitching strike-thrower, which are the three best qualities for a pitcher facing the Yankees. If he can quiet the left-handed bats (Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon and Robinson Cano), he'll be able to pitch around Derek Jeter (.407 BA vs. Lee) and Alex Rodriguez (.333 BA vs. Lee) in key spots.
Edge: Yankees
Game 2 Probables
A.J. Burnett vs. Pedro Martinez
Burnett will get hardly a mention in the build-up to Game 2. He has been his usual self in three playoff starts...erratic, inconsistent and sometimes dominant. He will allow baserunners with walks and hit batsmen, but he's hard to string hits together against (14 hits in 18.1 IP). Burnett's key will be keeping the ball in the yard. If the Phils cap two walks with a three-run bomb, the Yanks won't survive Game 2.
"Who's your daddy!?!" will ring around new Yankee Stadium. I love Charlie Manuel for starting Pedro in New York if only for the theater. From a strategic standpoint, I don't get it. If the Yankees don't pound Martinez, they'll at least make him work and get into the Phillies bullpen early.
Edge: Yankees
Game 3 Playoff Veterans
Andy Pettitte vs. Cole Hamels
Pettitte is the all-time leader in postseason wins, so the World Series stage will only inspire his best work. If the Yankees had their choice, he would pitch Game 2 and Game 6. As is, Pettitte will likely get just one World Series start. However, he could be a valuable piece added to the bullpen for Games 6 and 7.
Cole Hamels is the key to the series for Philly. He'll likely start Games 3 and 7. Hamels is coming off his worst career season (4.32 ERA) and his playoff performances have been awful (11 ER in 14.2 IP). But he has #1 talent and he was the primary reason that Philadelphia won the Series last year. If he can find his form, he could lead the way again.
Edge: Yankees
Extra Starter
Chad Gaudin vs. J.A. Happ
Gaudin will get the nod in Game 4 if the Yankees are cruising or Game 5 otherwise. The Yankees were 6-0 in Gaudin's starts during the regular season, but he has pitched just one inning this playoff season. If he starts, he'll be on the shortest leash imaginable with Alfredo Aceves getting back-up duty.
Happ beat the Yankees in the regular season and could pose some problems. Like Lee, he is a hard-throwing lefty. If I were Manuel, Happ and Martinez would swap starts. As is, Happ will likely be matched with Sabathia in Game 4.
Edge: Phillies
Middle Relief or Extra Innings Relief
If the starters don't go deep or the games go long, both teams will be exposed to punishing lineups. Aceves has looked lost in the postseason and he will assume long man duties if Gaudin is forced to start. Damaso Marte has surpassed Phil Coke as the top lefty, but both will get work against the left-hand heavy Phillies. Neither inspires confidence. David Robertson has been the Yankees lone bright spot in this area, but he may fill a set-up role if Phil Hughes continues to nosedive.
Chad Durbin has not given up a run in five playoff appearances and Joe Blanton has been serviceable. Chan Ho Park and Brett Myers should only be asked to soak up innings in a blowout.
Edge: Phillies
Set-Up Men
Hughes/Chamberlain vs. Madson/Eyre
Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are supposed to bridge the gap to Mariano Rivera. However, they've been so bad in the first two series that Rivera has assumed 8th and 9th inning duties. The Yanks will need one of the two kids to grab hold of the 8th inning role because there are fewer off days in the World Series for Rivera to rest.
Ryan Madson has been ok and Scott Eyre has been solid. Brad Lidge is a three outs or less closer, so there's more pressure on Madson and Eyre, but they are also more battle tested.
Edge: Phillies
Closer
Mariano Rivera vs. Brad Lidge
Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time and the greatest pitcher in the history of the postseason.
Brad Lidge has been better lately, but the stakes just got raised. The Yankees will spit on his slider until he proves that he can attack the strike zone with his fastball. During their three game interleague series this Summer, Lidge blew two saves.
Edge: Yankees
