Last year, I went crazy and predicted the Raptors to win the East. In case you missed it, they very much did not.
But really, the NBA is not about crazy predictions. Teams build up around one great draft pick, add pieces, take baby steps and eventually climb the mountain top.
For example, take the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. They had a centerpiece in Kobe Bryant, but they were a "one-on-five team." Then, they brought back Phil Jackson, who tried to get Kobe to share, but he had no worthy teammates. They added Andrew Bynum and then swung the crucial deal for Pau Gasol. Then, the veterans start flooding in like Derek Fisher and now Ron Artest. After the Celtics taught them an NBA Finals lesson, they came back with more focus and determination and closed the deal on a younger, still building, Magic team. Voila, you have an NBA champion.
The rest of the NBA is broken into different categories along this stage of development. So, we'll take a look at where everyone is from worst-to-first.
No Centerpiece and No Plan
Milwaukee Bucks
Michael Redd is Robin dressed as Batman. Andrew Bogut was their shot at finding a true #1 guy with the #1 pick, but he's a 2008 stock portfolio version of Tim Duncan. Now, they hope Brandon Jennings is the solution, but he's looking at a steep learning curve.
Golden State Warriors
Not long ago, they were thriving in "Nellie ball" with Baron Davis and "Captain" Jack, and Jessica Alba sitting courtside. Now, they look like a headless monster. They have some pieces in Monta Ellis, Anthony Randolph and Stephen Curry, but there's no linchpin.
Sacramento Kings
I recall thinking that Tyreke Evans was the second best player in the draft, so he's my ROOKIE OF THE YEAR pick. However, the only centerpiece in this draft was Blake Griffin and he's suffering from the Sterling curse right now. The Kings are in freefall until they find a new home...Hello Anaheim!
Indiana Pacers
Are they seriously trying to build an NBA contender around Danny Granger? Funny note: The Pacers are statistically inverted. The starting back-court of T.J. Ford (31%) and Dahntay Jones (36%) are just hoping to draw iron when they chuck the occasional three. Meanwhile, forwards Danny Granger (39%) and Troy Murphy (40%) are proficient three-point marksman.
Charlotte Bobcats
Did anyone even notice that Michael Jordan (from a cell phone on the golf course no doubt) traded their "franchise player" Emeka Okafor in the offseason? He will now enjoy a career year running the court with Chris Paul, while Tyson Chandler will wonder how this team that keeps drafting point guards, does not have any good point guards.
Actively Sucking in Hopes of Landing a King
New York Knicks
The Knicks should have packaged this year's season tickets with next year's. They cannot honestly tell their fans that they're trying to win this season. All they're doing is watching the hourglass run out on a team full of expiring contracts. The Donnie Walsh era will be judged next Summer and then the Mike D'Antoni era will begin.
New Jersey Nets
The Nets are in the same boat, but they have a back-up plan. Unlike the Knicks, they still have their 2010 1st round pick. Plus, a free agent star might actually see some promise in teaming up with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and Courtney Lee.
We've Got a Plan; It's just a Bad One
Memphis Grizzlies
They've put together the most selfish, ball-hogging unit ever seen in an NBA arena, but they have talent. O.J. Mayo, Allen Iverson, Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay are offensive black holes. If you pass them the ball, it's not coming back. If they had a great floor leader like Chauncey Billups or Steve Nash, this team could be decent with Hasheem Thabeet protecting the rim, while everyone else rests between jump shots. Instead, Mike Conley has been asked to distribute the ball evenly, but it would take four basketballs to make that quartet happy.
Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas is going to reemerge as one of the league's shining stars. That's the plan! Arenas is a shoot-first-second-and-third point guard, who has played 15 games combined the last two seasons. At his best, he's Allen Iverson, an exciting guard on an average team. He's signed to a mega-contract, so it is what it is in D.C.. At least the Skins are good!!!
"Dry Land Is Not a Myth"
Los Angeles Clippers
In the foggy distance, there is hope emerging. Baron Davis is in great shape and Eric Gordon is ready to play like a top shooting guard. Blake Griffin will be the new face of the franchise, once he returns from a broken kneecap. Chris Kaman will handle low-post scoring and Marcus Camby will protect the rim. The Clips always sound promising on paper, but it never works out (except for that one time).
Minnesota Timberwolves
I'm on board with the 1-2 combo of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, even if they are in need of a shot-blocker. Jonny Flynn will be a great floor leader, whose Niagara roots will protect him from the Minneapolis cold. But their too smart for his own good GM had to ruin everything by picking Ricky Rubio. Steph Curry stretching the floor or DeMar DeRozan filling the lane would have been the next piece, but instead, their best player does not even play for them.
The White Chocolate Division
Oklahoma City Thunder
In any good NBA playoff season, there is a really young, fun #7 or #8 seed that makes the opening 10 days tolerable. The 1999 Kings were the best example led by Jason "White Chocolate" Williams and Chris Webber. They pushed Utah and then Los Angeles to the brink with an all flash, no real substance game. In their footsteps, the "Nellie ball" Warriors upset the Mavericks, the Hawks went 7 with the future champion Celtics and last year, the mini-Bulls played a classic series with Boston. Anyway, Kevin Durant and Co. are this season's best bet to surprise and entertain.
All Bridesmaids, No Bride
Philadelphia 76ers
All five starters serve a purpose. Sam Dalembert can block shots, which enables Elton Brand to score points as an undersized power forward. Thaddeus Young, Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams can run and gun. But the first three quarters of an NBA game are an exhibition for the fans. The fourth quarter is a one-on-one game between both teams go-to scorers. Philly loses that battle to most teams.
Houston Rockets
Somehow they'll find a way to be competitive. No Yao Ming, not a whole lot of Tracy McGrady, but plenty of Luis Scola. They'll win more games than they should considering Aaron Brooks is their late-game scorer.
Detroit Pistons
With the offseason additions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, the Pistons now have five or six guys that can really play. But where's the sex appeal? Whose name is on the marquis? One quick caveat amidst negativity, they could have an intriguing team if they go small in crunch time. With Rodney Stuckey, Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Villanueva, they would be tough to guard if they could stop their opponent.
One-on-Five
Miami Heat
They've got the star. Dwyane Wade sells jerseys, scores points and makes them relevant. But he cannot make them a contender by himself. Michael Beasley is the key to this franchise's success and he spent his offseason cleaning his life up away from the basketball court.
New Orleans Hornets
Chris Paul can make anyone look good. He'll do wonders to revive Okafor's career and make Julian Wright into a player. But when is somebody going to help Chris Paul? While LeBron James would be wise to stay in Cleveland this offseason, Paul should be a true free agent the following Summer.
Going Down Sir?
Phoenix Suns
They had a great run. Without cheap ownership, they might have been a championship team. Either way, they were a landmark team in the evolution of professional basketball. They never made it quite to the mountain top and now they're trying to fight gravity with Steve Nash, Amar'e Stoudamire and a patchwork roster.
Dallas Mavericks
They have some great names like Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jason Kidd, but it's not 2005 anymore. Dirk Nowitzki and Mark Cuban were two wins away from becoming immortal. Now, they're trying to claw back uphill when they should be rebuilding.
Limbo
Atlanta Hawks
They're not good enough to contend, but they're plenty good enough to make the playoffs and even steal a series. Half the league would kill to have Joe Johnson as their lead dog, but the Hawks are trying to crack into the upper echelon and he's not good enough. They go 10-deep with quality players, so there's no reason to break up the team, but they're also not a threat to Boston, Orlando and Cleveland.
Utah Jazz
Carlos Boozer is an accurate reflection of this entire franchise. Talented, but confused. The Jazz are keeping Boozer around, but they've made it clear Paul Millsap is the power forward of the future. Utah better start working on a plan or Deron Williams is going to end up in the "one-on-five" category.
Building...
Toronto Raptors
Chris Bosh is a reluctant star, but they've lined up the right pieces to help him achieve his full potential. Hedo Turkoglu will take game-winning shots off Bosh's to-do list. DeRozan will entertain the crowd with highlight dunks. Jose Calderon will handle on-court leadership. Andrea Bargnani will clear some space for Bosh to work. If Bosh gets his 20-10, the Raptors should continue climbing the mountain.
Portland Trail Blazers
They could take a step back this year in the win-loss department, but they're still going in the right direction. Greg Oden needs to prove he can stay healthy and one other youngster needs to emerge (Martell Webster, Jerryd Bayless or Travis Outlaw). They have the right coach (Nate McMillan) and the right star (Brandon Roy), so the future remains bright.
Living and Learning
Denver Nuggets
They took their lumps against the Lakers and they'll likely come up short of the Conference Finals this season. But the Nuggets are not that far off a championship course. Carmelo Anthony should continue to mature and Nene can be a force if he's in shape. They made two solid offseason pick-ups. Ty Lawson will push tempo and provide much needed rest for Billups aging body, while Arron Afflalo is a disciplined version of Dahntay Jones.
Orlando Magic
The Magic were out of their depth in the NBA Finals, but they'll be ready next time. Dwight Howard is on the Shaquille O'Neal career path. They've bolstered their bench with Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass and the re-signing of Marcin Gortat. However, I don't expect Vince Carter to put them over the top, at least not this season.
Hanging On
Boston Celtics
They've been to the top, but now they're in a battle with father time. Kevin Garnett is being held together by duct tape and rubber cement. Rasheed Wallace is looking for his 42nd bounce-back season. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are hoping their legs don't desert them when they're needed the most. Boston should accept the #3 seed, even the #4 seed if it means being healthy for the playoffs.
San Antonio Spurs
The core is still the same with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, but the veteran mercenaries are better this season. Richard Jefferson is a huge upgrade over Michael Finley and Antonio McDyess is an improvement over Kurt Thomas. They still need great play and better health from their big three. Ginobili is the key.
Ready
Cleveland Cavaliers
Do you think LeBron James is going to stop? He led them to the NBA Finals by himself three years ago. He willed them to a 7th game against a vastly superior Celtics team two years ago. And, they were the favorites before running into a hot Orlando team last year. Forget Shaq, he's just a famous name in an old body. James is back, which means the Cavs will find a way to navigate through the Eastern Conference as he collects another MVP.
The Champs
Los Angeles Lakers
In case you haven't noticed, Phil Jackson has a habit of stringing his championships in threes. Kobe Bryant is not the league's best player, but he's exactly what this team needs. His fire will keep them from getting complacent. His clutch scoring will keep them from being upset. And, his improved leadership (assuming that story is true) will keep Ron Artest and Lamar Kardashian from being a distraction. THE LAKERS WILL REPEAT.
