1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 5) Houston Rockets
Key Matchups
Yao Ming vs. Andrew Bynum - The Rockets need Yao to pulverize the kid. He needs to outplay Bynum so badly that Phil Jackson looks to Josh Powell or D.J. Mbenga for help. If the Lakers get any life out of Bynum, they will cruise to a series win.
Kobe Bryant vs. Shane Battier/Ron Artest - Much was made of the Rockets "sabermetric" approach to defending Kobe, but the truth is that they do as well as anybody against Mr. Bean. Sure, the "Black Mamba" has his nights when the NBA rules make it impossible to hold him below 50, but he'll mix in some 9/24s against Battier and Artest.
Pau Gasol vs. Luis Scola - They were too tall to be matadors, so these Spaniards (Correction: Scola is from Argentina) went for basketball instead. Gasol is the Lakers most efficient threat and Scola was the Rockets best player against Portland.
Prediction
The Rockets have the capacity to scare the Lakers, but not beat them. They'll win a home game by holding the Lakers under 90 points and they'll steal another game if PG Aaron Brooks randomly goes off. But I'll take the Lakers in 6.
2) Denver Nuggets vs 6) Dallas Mavericks
Key Matchups
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Kenyon Martin - Nowitzki got off to a positive start in Game 1, but he slowed down due to the altitude or pace or athleticism of his opponent. With the ascension of "Birdman" Andersen, the Nuggets have two lively bodies to send at the Mavs star. The giant German needs to shoot more free throws than fadeaways.
Carmelo Anthony vs. Josh Howard - All these guys do for their teams is score. They are capable of more, but that's what they do well. If they hover around 20 per game, they'll cancel each other out. But if one of them goes to 30 per night, they could swing the series.
Nuggets Bench vs. Mavs Bench - It was the story in Game One and it will determine how important homecourt advantage is if both benches thrive in their own arena. If J.R. Smith and Co. dominate Jason Terry and Co. in Dallas as well, Denver will cruise.
Prediction
This series will look entirely different when the games move to Dallas. I'll take the Nuggets in 7 though.
1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 4) Atlanta Hawks
Key Matchups
Joe Johnson vs. Delonte West - It's the only spot where the Hawks could expose the Cavs. Johnson needs to average 30 per game.
LeBron James vs. Josh Smith - Smith has the physical tools to be a defensive stopper, but he lacks the concentration that players like Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier put into their craft. If he takes the challenge, this could be his chance for stardom. Probably not though.
Cavs Bigs vs. Hawks Bigs - Atlanta's youngsters need to make the Cavs big men look slow. It sounds easy, but Big Z and Joe Smith are much savvier than they look. If Mike Brown has to go to Anderson Varejao and J.J. Hickson to keep up, something is wrong in Cleveland.
Prediction
Atlanta gets a home game and nothing else. Cavs in 5.
2) Boston Celtics vs. 3) Orlando Magic
Key Matchups
Dwight Howard vs. Kendrick Perkins - Howard will undoubtedly string together 20+ points/20+ rebounds performances, but Perkins just needs to hang in there. He should play behind Howard and force jump hooks and then limit his offensive putbacks. If Perkins lives in foul trouble, Mikki Moore will have to play. That's not good.
Paul Pierce vs. Hedo Turkoglu - The Magic will cruise to a series win if Hedo can draw with Pierce. At times, Pierce looked sluggish against Chicago, but he summoned enough energy to close the big games strong. Turkoglu may have saved Orlando's season with the game-winning three in Game Four.
Rajon Rondo vs. Rafer Alston - Rondo was spectacular against the Bulls, but let's not forget that Troy Hudson once had a huge first round playoff series against the Lakers. If Rondo is truly elite, he will destroy Alston and make the Jameer Nelson injury the reason Orlando went down.
Prediction
I went with Orlando before the playoffs started, but I'll take a flyer on the Celtics heart. Honestly, the Magic could sweep this series, but I'm picking the Celtics in 7.
