Where we are, where we thought we would be and where we think we're going...

NL East

Leader - Atlanta Braves

Prediction - Philadelphia Phillies (4.5 games back)

Projection - Atlanta Braves

The Phillies had a bizarre first half, but they could rally back to win the division if they make a trade for another starting pitcher and they get healthy.  I picked the Braves as the sleeper of the NL, so I'm hardly surprised by their Spring surge, although it did not look to good when they were getting no-hit every other night in April.  If they can keep getting production from their infield (Martin Prado, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones), they have enough pitching to close the deal.

NL Central

Leader - Cincinnati Reds

Prediction - St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 game back)

Projection - St. Louis Cardinals

I thought the Reds were a year away with Edinson Volquez on the shelf and Aroldis Chapman in the minors, but they have the best offense in the National League led by Joey Votto and the resurgent Scott Rolen.  However, St. Louis is just a game back.  Once Tony LaRussa sorts out his bullpen, the Cards star power will overpower the division.

NL West

Leader - San Diego Padres

Prediction - Colorado Rockies (2.0 games back)

Projection - Colorado Rockies

Like most "experts", I had the Padres buried in last with their two stars (Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell) donning new uniforms by next month.  Instead, they've used a no-name pitching staff and a giant ballpark to stifle offenses in the year of the pitcher.  Nevertheless, the Rockies and even the Dodgers and Giants have so much more talent on paper that someone will chase down the Pads in September. 

NL Wild Card

Leader - Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies

Prediction - Atlanta Braves

Projection - Philadelphia Phillies

The Braves were considered a sleeper when I tabbed them to take the wild card, but now they are a division leader.  While I like the Rockies to take the NL West, I'll settle on the two-time defending NL champs to grab the final playoff berth.

AL West

Leader - Texas Rangers

Prediction - LA Angels of Anaheim (4.5 games back)

Projection - Texas Rangers

Typically, I'd ignore the Rangers strong start because they tend to fade as the Texas heat wears them down late into the Summer.  However, I'm encouraged by Josh Hamilton, who is back to his '08 dominance, and the trade for Cliff Lee.  In the long run, they'll likely regret giving up Justin Smoak for a rental, but Lee should secure their first division title in over a decade.

AL Central

Leader - Chicago White Sox

Prediction - Chicago White Sox

Projection - Chicago White Sox

I was not looking so smart after an ugly start, but they've rebounded behind consistent pitching and a top 5 MVP half from Alex Rios.  With Jake Peavy on the sidelines, the Twins and Tigers are ready to pounce, but GM Kenny Williams is always active at the trade deadline.  He'll bring in a starting pitcher to fill the hole.

AL East

Leader - New York Yankees

Prediction - New York Yankees

Projection - New York Yankees

They are not nearly as exciting as last year's team, but they are better.  They've won a major league leading 56 games to this point behind pitching, power and defense.  Their starting rotation has accounted for a ridiculous 48 wins, which means they are getting deep into games and holding leads. 

AL Wild Card

Leader - Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction - Boston Red Sox (3.0 games back)

Projection - Boston Red Sox

With all the injuries, maybe it's not the Red Sox year.  On the other hand, they can only get healthier in the second half.  The Rays are better on paper than practice.  They have too many all-or-nothing bats plus suspect team chemistry.  Whoever does better at the trade deadline will emerge from this two-horse race.

Playoffs

In the preseason, I went Yankees over Red Sox and Rockies over Phillies.  I'll stick with my two World Series combatants, but now I like Yankees over Rangers and Rockies over Braves.

In the end, the Yankees should win one more for George.

Midseason Awards

AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is putting up triple crown numbers, while Alex Rodriguez (preseason pick) looks old.

NL MVP - Joey Votto

He won't hold out, but he's holding up better than Chase Utley (my pick).  Pujols should win another one with a strong finishing kick.

AL Cy Young - David Price

The young lefty could wear down as he reaches new innings heights, while Jon Lester (preseason pick) will be in the thick of it.  CC Sabathia is known as a dominant second half pitcher, which is a scary thought considering he already has 12 wins.

NL Cy Young - Ubaldo Jimenez

I know wins are an overrated stat, but 15 at the break is absurd.  Jimenez has shown signs of cracking, so look for Josh Johnson to steal the award away.  I picked Roy Halladay in my preview.

AL Rookie - Brennan Boesch

The Tigers call-up has slugged his away into the middle of their lineup and the top of the rookie standings.  I'll stick with my preseason choice, Neftali Feliz, to maintain dominance throughout the season.

NL Rookie - Jaime Garcia

The Cardinals pitcher has been greatly overshadowed by the NL's star-studded rookie class.  He'll lose out in the end to Jason Heyward (my preseason pick) or more likely Stephen Strasburg.

AL Manager - Terry Francona

Considering the injuries and the horrific start, he has the Red Sox in a prime position to catch the Rays and/or the Yankees.  Ozzie Guillen (preseason pick) will get his fair share of votes.

NL Manager - Bobby Cox

Some national writers suggested that a lesser known manager would have been fired based on the Braves April.  There is a reason that Cox is not a lesser known manager.  My preseason pick will take the award in his final year. 

Ubaldo Jimenez (one of four no-hitters) has paced the field in the year of the pitcher.

Baseball, NBA and *Lost*...

• With only 160 games left to play, we need to dive into some baseball talk.  Opening day featured two of the best moments in recent memory.  With all eyes watching, Jason Heyward turned his first official major league swing into an ATL fantasy.  Then, Mark Buehrle made possibly the greatest fielding play by a pitcher...ever.
• Yankees DH Nick Johnson is batting a crisp .000 (0/5), but his legendary eye has netted him a .500 OBP, plus a game-winning RBI.  They say his little league coach used to prod him to swing the bat.  That coach needs to read Moneyball. 
• RP Hideki Okajima picked up the decision in the Red Sox first two games (1-1).  He leads the majors in wins and losses.
• Albert Pujols is on pace to hit 324 homeruns and drive in 486 runs this season.  I would not put it past him.
• Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be the Davidson of this year's NBA playoff season (2 months counts as a season).  While you have probably not followed them through the first 82 (why would you?), the Thunder play with a youthful exuberance last seen by the 2007 Golden State Warriors.
• The Celtics were beaten by the Knicks NBDL team last night.  The Knicks are bad enough, but when Earl Barron (formerly of the LA D-Fenders) drops 17 pts. and 18 rebs. on Kevin Garnett, there are problems in Beantown.  Rajon Rondo is the only Celtics player who looks like he has any life left in his legs.
• Word to the wise: The NBA media is about to sell you the Dallas Mavericks as Western Conference contenders.  Don't believe the hype.  Dirk Nowitzki is still soft.  Jason Kidd is still old.  When Brendan Haywood is the savior, you are beyond salvation.
• By the way, the Denver Nuggets are toast too without Kenyon Martin's toughness, but he might come back as long as no one puts anymore popcorn in his car. 
• Do you know who is going to win the West?  Crazy upset pick: Los Angeles Lakers.  They have turned complacency into an art form.  They'll do enough to navigate through the playoffs and they'll repeat if someone takes out the Cavs in the East.
• Barcelona's Lionel Messi is the greatest footballer in the world right now.  Cristiano Ronaldo has stagnated in Real Madrid's selfish system.  Wayne Rooney is nipping at Messi's heels, but he'll need his Manchester United teammates to keep his Champions League dreams alive, while he recovers from an ankle injury.  Meanwhile, Messi had a hat trick within 42 minutes against Arsenal yesterday and finished with four goals on the night.  They're all here for your viewing pleasure. 
• Lost is a love story.  Anyway, that's my theory of the week.  Jacob brought them all to the island to prove that human beings are inherently good.  While that experiment had its flaws, maybe love conquers all and tips the scales in Jacob's favor.  As their timelines and dimensions collide, love is the most powerful factor.  Whether it's Jack/Kate/Sawyer, Jin/Sun, Daniel/Charlotte, Charlie/Claire, Desmond/Penny or Ricardo/Isabella, love is the uniting force.  Every character had a love story, except for Locke, but I've got a feeling he (his body) is going down in the finale. 
• By the magic of the Internet, we now have Monday's "One Shining Moment" video sans Jennifer Hudson set to Luther's immortal voice.  While the pictures don't match the words and the live-sound is gone, Vandross will still stir your soul. 

In order of predicted finish...

1. Chicago White Sox

Strength - Pitching

They are solid 1-4 in the rotation led by veteran strike-thrower Mark Buehrle.  While Jake Peavy is a health risk, he is one of the most competitive pitchers in baseball, so he won't shut it down without a fight.  John Danks and Gavin Floyd are not famous names, but they deliver consistent performances.  Bobby Jenks can make it interesting, but he's saved 29+ games in each of the last four seasons.  If J.J. Putz is healthy, he will form the best middle relief bridge in the game alongside lefty Matt Thornton.

Weakness - Pop

In this rare case, they will look back on their weakness as a strength.  I may not be right about much, but I screamed from the hills about the stupidity of trading Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome in the offseason after the ChiSox won the World Series with a team built on speed on defense.  In the last few years, they have been mired in mediocrity trying to make mismatched parts fit with an aggressive manager and old, slugging position players.  Now that Thome and Jermaine Dye are gone, Ozzie Guillen can recreate the speed and defense identity around Juan Pierre, Alex Rios, Gordon Beckham and others.

2. Minnesota Twins

Strength - M&M's

When you have a foundation like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, it makes a GM's life a lot easier.  The Twins are able to make smart, value buys each year like Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome because they have those two rocks in place.  However, they lost Joe Nathan, who was that third consistent force in the franchise.

Weakness - Bullpen

I love their starting rotation.  While their biggest name is the infamous Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn are future stars plus Francisco Liriano can still be salvaged.  However, without Nathan, the bullpen is out of order.  Everyone slides up a spot, which makes the bullpen weaker on the whole not just in the 9th inning.  They will work it out by the end of the season, but they should blow enough games late to get pipped for the division by the Sox.

3. Detroit Tigers

Strength - Offseason

Despite potential financial worries around the mass exodus of the Detroit population and thus their fanbase, GM Dave Dombrowski put them in a position to win this season.  They traded Curtis Granderson for CF Austin Jackson, who will probably struggle in his first year in the bigs.  However, they replaced Granderson's bat with Johnny Damon.  And, they filled holes in their pitching staff with flamethrower Max Scherzer, lefty Phil Coke and closer Jose "Pops" Valverde.  Joel Zumaya looks like his old self (101 MPH!) in spring training, so he could be the biggest addition.

Weakness - Now or Later

Damon, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez are ready to win right now.  Jackson, Rick Porcello and Scherzer are moves to win in the future.  They should be in the division race by the trade deadline when Dombrowski will have to decide if the plan is to win now or later.

4. Kansas City Royals

Strength - Three-Game Series

The Royals illustrate perfectly the difference between the two leagues.  Kansas City is awful, but they could be a pain in the ass in a three-game series.  If you have the rough luck to draw Zack Greinke, Gil Meche and Luke Hochevar, you are not leaving town with a sweep.  Plus, they have closer Joakim Soria, who will make 8-inning leads count.

Weakness - Confusion

What is the plan?  They signed Jason Kendall, who has to be the worst hitter in baseball, to a big money contract.  They made aggressive moves to reel in Rick Ankiel (.231 with 99 Ks in '09) and Scott Podsednik (34 years old).  They are acting like a veteran team that just needs a couple extra pieces to put them over the top.  They should be using those at-bats on young players because they don't have any top position talents at the big league level.

5. Cleveland Indians

Strength - Where have all the Indians gone?

No CC Sabathia, no Cliff Lee, no Victor Martinez.  They are built around Grady Sizemore (terribly overrated!), Jhonny Peralta (terrible spelling) and Shin-Soo Choo (not terrible, I like him).  Fausto Carmona has had a big spring training, so maybe he will carry the rotation.

Weakness - Who are these guys?

Who is their closer?  Chris Perez...Tony Sipp...never heard of 'em.  I know their organization well enough to know that they have a plan, but the plan is clearly NOT to win this season.  Mitch Talbot and Carlos Carrasco are listed as rotation candidates.  It's like a who's NOT who of baseball players. 

Ranking the Division's Best

Best Lineup

1. Twins - People forget that they didn't have Morneau for the playoffs.

2. Tigers - Cabrera is the best pure hitter in the A.L..

3. White Sox - If Carlos Quentin from '08 returns, they'll be special.

4. Indians - Young talents Matt LaPorta, Trevor Crowe and Michael Brantley inject some life.

5. Royals - I like Billy Butler.

Best Rotation

1. White Sox - Peavy is the key...

2. Twins - Can C-Pav do it now that he has a contract?

3. Tigers - Verlander and Porcello are a good place to start.

4. Royals - Greinke...

5. Indians - Carmona needs to pull a Cliff Lee like renaissance.

Best Bullpen

1. White Sox - Thornton is a stud...

2. Tigers - Zumaya is a stud...

3. Royals - Soria is a stud...

4. Twins - Rauch is NOT a stud...

5. Indians - Ricky Vaughn is a stud...

Best Manager

1. Tigers - Pack-a-day Jim Leyland is old school.

2. Twins - Ron Gardenhire puts them in position every season.

3. White Sox - Ozzie Guillen's ego doesn't fit in the baseball culture. 

4. Indians - Manny Acta should be given a long leash with this roster.

5. Royals - Trey Hillman is not long for this job.

Fantasy Sleepers

1. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Indians - .300/20/20 last year and he's improving.

2. Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox - Good as a rookie, star as a sophomore...

3. Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins - All the reports are good.

4. Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians - The ceiling is still high.

5. Joel Zumaya, RP, Tigers - Strikeouts...

Fantasy owners should ride the train...the Choo Choo train.

I'm all fired up Donnie...

• I never viewed Donnie Walsh as the savior of the Knicks franchise.  He's just the reasonable guy they brought in to push the refresh button and undo everything the last two guys did.  SO BE REASONABLE!!!  Why can't the Knicks do nothing?  Sit out the trade deadline unless somebody knocks you over with a great deal.  Go for LeBron James in the offseason and when he says no, settle for Joe Johnson, who loves Mike D'Antoni.  Johnson, David Lee and Danilo Gallinari might sneak you into the playoffs next year...or maybe not.  Either way, Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry's contracts expire and you make a huge run at Chris Paul, who cannot be happy in New Orleans.  Otherwise, you use your draft pick in a novel fashion and actually draft somebody!!!!
• No, instead Mr. Walsh is begging, I mean pleading, for the Rockets to send him Tracy McGrady's corpse for expriring contracts, Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill (a lottery pick that the Knicks have given up on 52 games into his NBA career) and a 1st round draft pick (because "we're going to be so good in 2012, we'll be picking late in the first round!").  Oh by the way, McGrady is a free agent this Summer, so if you like him so much, sign him to a mid-level contract. 
• Walsh seems to think that T-Mac will help persuade LeBron to New York in the offseason.  If I'm LeBron, I'm insulted.
• As I tweeted yesterday, Isiah Thomas would have loved this deal.
• If the extra cap space caused by the departure of Jeffries lands LeBron and Chris Bosh, everything I said above is null and void.
• The Cavs are trying to spoil LeBron with toys, so he'll stay in Cleveland, but are they the right toys?  Amar'e Stoudemire is a stat machine, but he does not play defense and he has forever thrived with the assistance of a world class distributor (Steve Nash).  James is a willing passer, but the Cavs offense is so stagnant, especially in crunch time.  Will Stoudemire be content hitting the offensive glass like Anderson Varejao?  If he plays with Shaq, there's no room on the block.  Plus, I'm not convinced that Stoudemire will be a better player than J.J. Hickson in two years.
• Now, Antawn Jamison is another rumored possibility for Cleveland and that makes more sense.  He is an unselfish, veteran player, who would help get the Cavs over the hump and the deal is not expected to include Hickson.
• In my "Hot Stove Preview" back in November, I guessed that Johnny Damon would end up with the Chicago White Sox.  While it was a bit random, my hypothesis was that "the Yankees will play hardball with him (offer no more than two years) and he'll take the money somewhere else."  He's a big city guy, so Chicago made sense, plus they have a homer friendly ballpark and holes in the outfield.  Some guy, who calls himself Black Sox 1919 had this to say, "I'll guarantee, the White Sox will not sign Damon."  Damon is down to the White Sox and Tigers, which means my new buddy has a 50/50 chance at a plate of "Suck it!".  He probably has no memory of writing it, but I'll sleep better.
• This could be a great week for Oregon St. football.  They have done nothing and could end up as the Pac-10 favorites.  This weekend, USC goes in front of the NCAA Infractions Committee, which could mean devastating sanctions that would knock the program back a couple years.  In bigger news, the current Pac-10 favorite Oregon has spent their offseason under the watchful eye of the law.  First, QB Jeremiah Masoli was accused of stealing computers.  Now, star RB LaMichael James has been charged with strangulation, assault and menacing.  I don't know if it's true, but I found him menacing during his assault of the USC defense last year, so there's a history.  
• By the way, my on the record guess for this weekend's meeting with NCAA: Reggie Bush is declared ineligible for his Junior season and USC vacates those wins.  Plus, the NCAA will double down on the basketball punishments and eliminate the Trojans from postseason play next year as well (which would destroy the program).   
• Why was Kate's name not on the cave wall?  Also, how did the plane not crashing keep Ben from ever going to the island?  He was on the island well before the plane crashed.  Maybe, Ben will convince present day John Locke to go to the island.  That makes more sense...
• I've been mumbling "pitchers and catchers...pitchers and catchers...pitchers and catchers" for almost four months.  Now that it's here, I'll have to go back to "4, 8, 15, 16 23, 42...", which by the way are all Yankees retired numbers.  
• I watched an hour of women's curling yesterday.  I don't want to talk about it.
• My problem with the Winter Olympics is the coverage.  I love most of the broadcasters, especially Bob Costas, Al Michaels, Dan Hicks, Mary Carillo and Chris Collinsworth, but in this era, I need it to be live.  If I were in charge, I would broadcast live during the day and think of the night broadcasts as a television show.  So, while we see 50 skiers do the downhill live, we only see the important ones do it during the primetime broadcast and we mix in feature stories and interviews, so the audience can relate to the anonymous athletes.  It is unrealistic to ask me to avoid the Internet, talk radio, ESPN and my phone for two weeks, so that I don't know the results ahead of time.

What's your caption?  Best I can do: "I don't know Chris, we don't have a lot of Bar-Mitzvahs in Germany."

Stored thoughts on Tiger and Brian Kelly, plus fresh thoughts on a true baseball megadeal...

• Play golf Tiger.  If I had the ear of the world's most famous athlete, that is what I would say.  Play golf.  America fell in love with Tiger Woods the golfer, not the father or the husband.  When you're asked questions about your marriage, keep your answers short and contrite, but the road to salvation begins April at Augusta.
• You're a hypocrite.  You, Lakers fan, who roots for Kobe Bryant, are a hypocrite.  The Yankees fan who roots for Alex Rodriguez is a hypocrite.  The boxing fan who calls Muhammad Ali the greatest is a hypocrite.  Lance Armstrong fans and Bill Clinton supporters, hypocrites all.  If you're done rooting for Tiger Woods based on cheating on his wife, you are a hypocrite.  He joins a long list of womanizers, but he's still on the short list of all-time greatest athletes.     
• When Woods crashed his car on Thanksgiving night and the report first broke, most people assumed he had been drinking.  Ironically, a DUI would have been great news for the Woods camp, which is a sad statement about this country.  Drunk driving kills people, having an affair or 15 does not unless your wife beats you to death with a golf club.  But in this era, we demonize Woods and write off the DUI as commonplace.
• Why is the Notre Dame football coach getting crucified for not coaching the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl?  When Kelly signs on with the Irish, he's the Notre Dame coach.  Why would he coach another team and why would they even want him to?  They wouldn't.  They want Kelly to stay at Cincy, but welcome to the real world.  All jobs and schools are not equal.  Kelly is moving up just like a player who leaves college early to go to the NFL.  "He did it for the money," says star WR Mardy Gilyard.  Yes, exactly.  When Gilyard holds out next year from training camp, he'll be doing it for the money.  Such is life Bearcats...
• Actually, Kelly's stance is a shot at the bowl system in general.  If Texas had lost to Nebraska, Cincinnati could have ended up in the BCS Title Game.  In that case, Kelly freely admits that he would've stayed on with the Bearcats.  While Ari Fleischer's BCS tries to spin that the Sugar Bowl is a HUGE game, Kelly knows that it's a glorified exhibition with nothing but moral victories to be gained. 
• The Seattle Mariners are the one clear winner in the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee blockbuster.  Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez now form the best 1-2 combo in baseball and Seattle is the favorite in the AL West.  The Phillies made this deal out of insecurity that the Yankees or Red Sox would take Cliff Lee in the offseason.  If Kyle Drabek lives up to the hype, he's an awfully steep price to pay for security.  The Blue Jays got enough for their young GM to get a passing grade on his first big trade.
• And the winner of the 2010 AL Wild Card is...the second place team in the AL East.  The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays got 4 wins better when Halladay left the division.  Meanwhile, the Angels got four games worse with Lee entering the AL West.  While the Mariners are AL West favorites, they are not contenders until they land another bat.
• John Lackey is a great signing for the Boston Red Sox.  He makes their starting rotation better than the Yankees and he's nails in the postseason.  But now what?  The Red Sox problem was not pitching.  Pitching was already their strength.  They need a bat and instead of signing one, they're charting a course to get much worse at the plate.  By all accounts, Theo Epstein plans to replace Jason Bay with a Mike Cameron/Jeremy Hermida platoon and replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre.  With Lackey in the fold, Epstein should use Clay Buchholz as trade bait to lure a big bat because Mike Cameron is not going to get it done.
• Hideki Matsui is a good signing for the Angels, but they cannot sign Vladimir Guerrero now, so it's basically a draw.  Anaheim is rockin' the deer in the headlights offseason.  Are the Angels still "the best 1st to 3rd" team in baseball when Matsui is the runner at 1st?  
• The White Sox traded for Juan Pierre today, which is another signal that they plan on returning to Ozzie ball in 2010.  If they get a healthy season out of Jake Peavy, they'll win the AL Central. 

You went out on top Godzilla and you will be missed.

I won't be attending the Winter Meetings this season.  They moved from Las Vegas to Indianapolis, so I expect I'm not the only one taking a pass.  Anyway, here is your list of the best free agents, where they'll go and what they can do:

1. John Lackey, SP, 31

Lackey is a younger version of Andy Pettitte.  His stats are not ace-like, but he sure looks like an ace on the big stage.  He is a year younger than A.J. Burnett and should command a higher salary (5 years, $90 million).  With the Red Sox not in the market for a top starter, the Rangers and Yankees should duel for Lackey's services.

Prediction: Yankees

2. Jason Bay, LF, 31

Bay is older than I thought and according to the sabermetrics, a terrible defensive outfielder.  However, he is athletic (13 steals), patient (.384 OBP) and powerful (36 HR).  He's also proven he can hit in the AL, which is more than Matt Holliday can say.  The Red Sox will set a ceiling (4 years, $60 mill?) like they did with Johnny Damon years ago, but the Yankees won't overbid for Bay, who locks them out of Carl Crawford next Winter.  He could go to the NL, but where does Boston turn...Jeremy Hermida?  

Prediction: Red Sox

3. Matt Holliday, LF, 30

His 2009 performance should scare off the entire American League.  Yet, he will command a big salary (5 years, $80 mill?), so he can only go to the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies and Cubs.  He could really help the Giants or Braves, who are one bat away from NL domination.  The Dodgers and Phillies are locked up with Manny Ramirez and Raul Ibanez, while the Cubs have Alfonso Soriano's awful contract.  That leaves the Mets, but buyer beware, he does not seem like a New York kind of guy.

Prediction: Mets

4. Chone Figgins, UTIL, 32

Did you hear that crash?  That's the market falling off.  Figgy is a late-blooming utility player with great speed.  He plays a lot of positions, but he's settled into third base, which is unfortunate because he hits like a second baseman.  He would be a great fit to fill the Cubs hole at second base and move Soriano out of the leadoff spot.  But he's the Angels identity and they are the only team who would let him play third.

Prediction: Angels

5. Johnny Damon, LF, 36

Yes, he's 36, but unlike everyone below him on this list, he can actually help your team win games.  He hit the same number of homeruns as Holliday and he can do it on the big stage.  He needs to be on a winner, but he could help put a contender over the top.  Just a guess, but the Yankees will play hardball with him (offer no more than two years) and he'll take the money somewhere else.  The White Sox depth chart currently lists a black hole in left field with Carlos Quentin moving to the DH spot.

Prediction: White Sox

6. Adam Laroche, 1B, 30

He's only 30 and he hit 25 homers last season despite getting traded twice.  Plus, he's a good glove man.  In the non-steroid era, he's not a bad player.  The Braves need lumber and he's proven that he can thrive in that town.

Prediction: Braves

7. Nick Johnson, 1B, 31

He's a great defensive player and an on-base machine.  However, he cannot stay healthy, so he never gets into a power groove (20+ HR once, 2006).  If he could stay on the field, he'd be the steal of this class.  The Mets need him the most, but the injuries will scare them away.  The Red Sox could go bargain hunting if they fail to lure Adrian Gonzalez in a trade.  Billy Beane could be intrigued, but I'll say the Giants, who need an injection of offense everywhere.

Prediction: Giants

8. Rich Harden, SP, 28

He's still young enough to tease on potential alone.  He hit 140+ innings for the first time since his second year (2004) last season, so he's either learning to be durable or due to break down again.  No GM can afford to make him the big acquisition of their offseason because he's bound to embarrass them.  So, we're left with the Red Sox or Dodgers.  After last year's John Smoltz and Brad Penny debacles, Boston should look for safer ground.

Prediction: Dodgers

9. Mike Gonzalez, RP, 31

Brian Fuentes career ERA: 3.47.  Gonzalez: 2.57.  Fuentes career batting average against: .226.  Gonzalez: .209.  Fuentes career WHIP: 1.26.  Gonzalez: 1.22.  Fuentes free agency age: 33.  Gonzalez: 31.  Last Winter, Fuentes signed for $17.5 million over 2 years plus a third year option with the Angels.  If I'm Gonzalez's agent, I'm not settling for a penny less. 

Prediction: Phillies

10. Andy Pettitte, SP, 38

Yes, he's 38.  And yes, he's going back to the Yankees, so he's no fun to write about in a prediction column, but I cannot stomach putting a World Series hero behind the likes of Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltre and Erik Bedard on any list.

Prediction: Yankees (1 year, $10 mill guaranteed)

Now for the fun part:

Trade Targets and Ideas

The 2010-11 Hot Stove class includes Roy Halladay, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Derek Jeter, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and Aramis Ramirez.  Basically, the balance of power in baseball could be shifted next Winter.  However, a smart GM will try and get out in front of that class by snagging a top gun in a trade.  3 ideas:

1. Boston Red Sox acquire Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez for RP Daniel Bard and prospects.

Boston has always viewed San Diego as a pipeline and the Red Sox will go to the well to pick-up the clean-up hitter that they desperately need.  The Padres don't want to pay actual money for baseball players, so they'll use their last chip to stock up on overvalued prospects.  Epstein can afford to lose Bard with Jonathan Papelbon in place.

2. New York Mets trade SS Jose Reyes to the Blue Jays for SP Roy Halladay.

This won't happen, but it should.  Reyes is a bad fit in New York, but he'd be a fun and relatively cheap piece to build around in Toronto.  Alongside Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, the Blue Jays would be decent.  Halladay is as good as gone after this season, so the Mets will need a negotiating window to lock him up.  In a spacious ballpark, Halladay and Johan Santana could own the National League.

3. New York Yankees trade SP Phil Hughes to the Rays for LF Carl Crawford.

Again, not gonna happen, but here me out.  If the Yankees sign Lackey, they'll have the top three in their rotation locked down with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.  Chien-Ming Wang will return midseason and Andy Pettitte is still in the mix.  The Yankees will move either Joba Chamberlain or Hughes to the bullpen.  As the postseason proved yet again, Chamberlain's stuff is far superior to Hughes.  Hughes projects as a middle of the rotation starter whereas Joba could be a potential ace or a replacement for Mariano Rivera when he retires.  With Ian Kennedy, Andrew Brackman and others earning big bonuses in the minors, why not flip Hughes for a 28-year-old left fielder who would hit homeruns in Yankees Stadium and obviously steal bases?  They can wait and get him as a free agent is the answer, but Crawford helps them win #28 in 2010.   

In case you missed it late yesterday, scroll down for my solution to the growing umpire problem.

• The National League is a joke and I have made many jokes about it, but the Phillies are not kidding around.  They are a serious baseball team with championship pedigree.  They have thunder up and down the lineup, which will only improve when Matt Stairs can DH in AL parks.  The Phils feature a bonafide ace in Cliff Lee, who could throw three times in the World Series.  More than anything, they play with the confidence and swagger of a champion.  They won't go down quietly next week.
• Jayson Werth is the breakout star of the 2009 postseason. 
• Just an FYI for those looking ahead, the World Series format is different than the LCS.  There is no extra off day between games 4 and 5, so in order to avoid a 4th starter like the Yankees did in the ALCS, every pitcher would have to throw on three-days rest. 
• The previous note makes this note more glaring: The combined score in CC Sabathia's three playoff starts...Yankees 21, Opponents 4.  Combined score in the non-CC starts...Yankees 16, Opponents 12.  Sabathia has been the MVP to this point, Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira will be the World Series MVP if the Yankees go all the way.  
• The Dodgers are right back where they started from this season.  Not good enough to beat the Phillies, but better than all the rest.  Plus, they have to wait on another Manny Ramirez decision, this time a player option.  Just guessing, but I think they'd rather go forward without him and make a free-agent play at Matt Holliday. 
• Joe Torre's squad, assuming he comes back after his annual mini-Brett Favre episode, needs starting pitching.  Clayton Kershaw will be great.  Chad Billingsley needs to be salvaged.  After that, don't count on Vicente Padilla, who will wear out his welcome in the clubhouse.  They need to go get an innings eater like they had with Derek Lowe.
• Fox is adding Ozzie Guillen to the show for the World Series, which I assume means a five-man pre-game.  Chris Rose, Erik Karros, Mark Grace, Guillen and Guillen's translator/personal bleep button man.  Ozzie is colorful!
• The NBA usually leads the sports world in homophobia (remember some of the ridiculous reactions to John Amaechi's outing himself), so it's no surprise that Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson are publicly feuding over the same subject.  Here's the gist: Isiah told Magic's agent Lon Rosen, "I hear Magic is gay" (according to Rosen and Magic), which in that era in the basketball community is probably the most hurtful thing he could've said about him.  Thomas denies it all to this day, but he now has beef with Magic because Johnson conspired with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen to exclude Isiah from the "Dream Team", which is true.  The absolute truth: Magic has always been something of a fraud (although the act is really good so it's hard to tell) and Isiah has always been an @$$hole.
• Second random NBA story: LeBron James told "Maxim Magazine" that he'd like to dunk on George W. Bush more than anyone in the world.  "I would dunk on [him], break the rim and shatter the glass," James revealed.  I say revealed because that's about as revealing as it gets for "King" James.  At this point, Republicans and Democrats are basically united against Bush's tenure, but nevertheless, James has let his political guard down just a tad recently.  First, he openly contributed to Barack Obama and now this quote.  With opinions comes opposition, so he'll need to thicken his skin if he wants to continue down this path, but I for one would wholeheartedly support a "sports global icon" taking a stand on something.
• Random thought: Diddy is the new American dream.  He used his famous friend's death to get famous himself.  Stole Sampled other people's songs to sell hit records to kids who were too ignorant to realize that those beats were popular 20 years previous.  He became part of a celebrity couple with Jennifer Lopez and now stays relevant by creating reality shows with MTV.  I don't begrudge the man's success, but if you look at the resume, "unique talent" will not appear anywhere.  Anyway, he is what so many people want to be these days...a businessman disguised as an artist.
• I leave you with these words to live by from Real World/Road Rules Challenge veteran Tonya, "Yeah, I get drunk and I fight and I get stupid and occasionally, a boob pops out.  But there is a line with me and you crossed it."

Kiss and make up now boys!

I might backtrack a bit, but there are some things we need to talk about.

• I don't understand some of these waiver trades.  First, why would the traditionally cheap Angels break the bank for Scott Kazmir, who is not good enough to crack their playoff rotation?  He's not currently better than John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders or Ervin Santana.  So, they picked up an extra arm for the bullpen and they are paying him ace money for the next two seasons.  The Rays are dancing in the Trop because now they have money to re-sign Carl Crawford.
• The Dodgers are paying Jim Thome 2.5 million to pinch-hit.  "If they make the World Series, he could be the designated hitter" is the common explanation.  Ok, but I'd rather have Juan Pierre play left and Manny Ramirez as the DH.  Just me I guess.
• GM Kenny Williams has to be on the hot seat in Chicago.  He helped bring the White Sox their first World Series in forever, but his stored credit is running out.  He bailed the Toronto Blue Jays out of the Alex Rios contract, not the player, the contract.  The player is an average outfielder, but the contract is an albatross that now belongs to the ChiSox.  Oh by the way, his big trade for Jake Peavy will have to wait until next year since the former Cy Young winner has not taken the mound and the AL Central race is over for Ozzie's crew.
• The Yankees could go 15-15 in their last 30 games and they'd still finish with 99 wins.  The Red Sox have lost once in the last 10 days and they cannot gain any ground.  They'll win at least 95 games.  The Rays had half the A.L. All-Star team.  That's why I write about the A.L. East 75% of the time.
• If Matt Cassel is seriously injured, I'm rescinding my Chiefs as a surprise team call.  Without Cassel, they are more like the Chefs ("Not going anywhere for a while...").
• Think the Cassel family is athletic.  Matt has two brothers, Justin and Jack, who have pitched in the big leagues.
• Speaking of USC Matts, Leinart looked happy and strong in his preseason effort against Green Bay last week.  He threw for over 350 yards in the 2nd half against the Packers.  The Cards would be wise to lock him up for well below market value because you never know when Kurt Warner's clock is going to expire.
• My memory is usually pretty good when it comes to sports, but I'm all screwed up about Justin Tuck's college career.  I remember him being hurt and being an enigma and that's why the Giants got him in the 3rd round.  However, I was watching Notre Dame at Tennesse from 2004 last night and Tuck broke the Irish career sack record in the game.  He also dominated that game, so most GMs just missed because he was coming off an injury.
• Am I the only one who has noticed that Michael Vick is not entirely on board with the whole "Wildcat" thing?  He seems like an actor who is afraid about being type-cast.  He's happy to help for now, but he's making it clear that he's a QB going forward.
• Remember when I posted the video of Bill Withers singing "Lean On Me" with the USC team.  Today, WR Kyle Prater announced he will be a Trojan.  Prater is the #1 ranked receiver in the nation, but he's from Hillside, IL.  In the past, he'd be a lock to go to Ohio State, Michigan or Illinois.  But he sees USC on the Internet and he watched them hammer Ohio St., Michigan and Illinois in recent years.   It's a viral world and Prater has the bug.
• Today, I was at Long Beach Poly High School and watched them practice.  The Jackrabbits have produced more NFL players than any high school in the country.  Their pre-practice routine was relaxed and energy-filled.  They sing, dance and chant.  Like the Internet video, remember this when the media talks about how "old school" Jim Tressel is or how Joe Paterno does not know how to turn on a computer.  These kids have no interest in "old school", unless Will Ferrell is the star.
• Headline: Schilling has some interest in Mass. Senate Seat.  Response: We have no interest in you.  Please go away.
• T'Wolves GM David Kahn thinks he's too smart for the room.  Now that Ricky Rubio is playing in Spain, Kahn is going to have to hang out at the DMV a lot for that to be true.
• USC preview and full college football previews coming up plus check out the iBN High School Sports channel for all the top football games in the Southland this season.  And, if you live in L.A. or O.C., I'll be hosting "iBN Sports High School Highlights" every Saturday on KDOC (channel 56 in most areas).  It's an hour long show that runs down all the big games, features and interviews. 

Summer is over, but football begins...

• Like the Eagles, the Patriots lost a ton in the defensive leadership category this offseason.  First Mike Vrabel then Rodney Harrison now Tedy Bruschi.  They'll be younger and faster, but it's hard to quantify what players like that trio can do for a defense in terms of instincts and positioning.
• The NFL spent the last decade creating rules that made it impossible for cornerbacks to cover receivers.  This season, you will notice that they've made it almost impossible for rushers to sack the quarterback.  You can no longer go low or high and you cannot follow-through.  So, we'll see many more sacks turned into personal fouls and QBs shaking out of the grasp of tentative defenders.
• Do the New York Giants dare float a 2nd round pick in the direction of the Denver Broncos and snare WR Brandon Marshall?  He's a nightmare off the field and an awful fit with Tom Coughlin, but he solves all their offensive problems.
• Mike Shanahan spent 14 years as the Broncos head coach, an eternity for the NFL.  I'm setting the over/under at one year for Josh McDaniels.  He looks as overwhelmed as any coach since Lane Kiffin took over with the Raiders.
• Zack Greinke won the Cy Young in April, but he's been slowly giving it back since then thanks to out of sight, out of mind mediocrity in Kansas City.  With CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander closing strong, Greinke has pulled out back-to-back gems to retake the clear lead.  Yesterday, he tossed a complete game 1-hitter, which follows his 15 strikeout performance earlier in the week.  Statistically, Greinke is beyond compare and should take home the hardware.
• In a less likely 1-hitter, the Chicago White Sox managed just three baserunners against Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin over 9 innings Saturday.  The ChiSox are headed to Minnesota after a 1-6 week in Fenway and the Bronx.  The season's over, but at least Ozzie's taking it well, "Well, we came to New York and visited the new Yankees Stadium.  It is a very nice ballpark.  We also stayed at a very nice hotel.  That's all I can really say about these past three days."
• Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz should be like Mike Mussina, but he actually pitches like Bronson Arroyo.  He is afraid to throw his fastball for strikes.  When he's aggressive early in the count like he was Saturday, his secondary pitches can be devastating.
• Consider Cliff Lee, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson, Javier Vazquez and all the rest of the hurlers that are light years better in the National League than they were in the American League.  Then, think about Barry Zito.  He was an A.L. Cy Young award winner moving to a spacious N.L. park and he's been downright awful.  On a positive note, he's been lights-out since the All-Star break and his fastball is touching 90 mph again.  The Giants are tied for the Wild Card and scaring the bejesus out of any team that has to face Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Zito in a short series.
• Who is this Tiger Woods?  He's new to me.
• Quick U.S. Open preview: I'll bet my bank account that the winner is one of the top six seeds.  Roger Federer has not lost a match in Flushing since 2003.  Rafael Nadal is back and rested, but he's rusty.  Andy Murray is the king of hard courts and Andy Roddick is the king of New York.  Juan Martin Del Potro is the wild card and Novak Djokovic's new coach Todd Martin will hopefully give the kid a heart transplant.
• I'll take Federer over Roddick in the top half of the draw and Nadal over Del Potro in the bottom half.  I promised a year full of Federer-Nadal finals, but Rafa got hurt and ruined it.  He's back, but he's not healthy enough to continue his dominance over the "Great Fed", who will seal the biggest season of his career with an Open win over his nemesis.
• On a personal note, the U.S. Open is my favorite sporting event to attend.  I have not been since high school, but if you ever get the chance, it's fantastic.  Go the first week, get there early and rush to the grandstand court.  For the cheapest ticket you can buy, you'll be sitting front row, dodging serves and pumping up the best players in the world.  I've been to some of the biggest games, but none of them guarantee a great day like Flushing.

Work today because the next three days are loaded with afternoon sports...

• The Josh Hamilton relapse story is not a story at all.  The media built up his recovery and he played up the religious side of it, so there's a modern need to chop someone like that down.  But relapse is a part of recovery.  Hamilton had a bad night, but he confessed to it the next day and held himself accountable for his actions.  That's a tremendous step forward.  In the past Hamilton did not have bad nights, he had bad weeks and months.  He's an addict and that never goes away. 
• The Chicago White Sox received Alex Rios for absolutely nothing.  They have to pay him his bloated contract, but he's still on the young side of 30 and he could thrive in a new environment.  They already have Jermaine Dye occupying right field, but Rios has the versatility and speed to play center or left.  He could be a difference maker in the AL Central race, where Detroit still does not have a playoff caliber lineup.
• I don't know where Troy Tulowitzki went, but he's back now.  The former Dirtbag (nothing personal, but that's what Long Beach St. players are called) fell apart last season after his breakout campaign in 2007.  He started slowly at the plate again this year, but he hit for the cycle last night including clouting his 21st homerun.  Tulo has hit .349 since the all-star break.
• When I was broadcasting USC baseball in college, my first road game was at Long Beach St.  The night before Tulowitzki had been lost for the season with an injury and LBSU was forced to move their third baseman to shortstop, Evan Longoria.  How loaded was that college team?  Of course, at the time, all we really knew about Longoria was that he shared a last name and a similar first name with that smokin' hot actress from "Desperate Housewives".  Years later, Tulo and Longo are still really good, Eva is still really hot and nobody watches "Desperate Housewives". 
• Big win for the Dodgers last night to keep the heat off their backs from San Francisco.  L.A. has hit their first major bump in the road in the 2009 season, but their lineup is too good to slump for long.  However, they are in dire need of another starter since Jason Schmidt SHOCKINGLY hurt himself again.  Their waiver-wire choices consist of John Smoltz (maybe the NL West is that much worse than the AL East) or Vicente Padilla (the definition of a clubhouse cancer).  Slim pickin's!
• The Padilla story is almost unprecedented.  He had a habit of throwing at guys on the other team, which led to retaliation on his own team that got old real quick in the Texas locker room.  Check out these quotes after GM Jon Daniels finally released Padilla: "About time," said OF Marlon Byrd.  "We have to get rid of the negatives to make a positive, and I believe this is a huge positive for this team."  Or Ian Kinsler shaking his GM's hand in front of the media: "Congrats!"  Even the GM chimed in, "It's about being a good teammate, acting like a professional and representing the team the right way."  Other than that, they thought this guy was the tits!
• Here's cnnsi.com's list of the best current golfers who have not won a major.  What strikes me is how much more distinguished this list is compared to tennis, which has the same number of majors per year.  Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Lee Westwood are big name players that have barely contended in a major let alone won one.  In tennis, the list would be headed by Andy Murray, but it's only a matter of time for the Scot.  Then, young players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro or good but not great vets like Tommy Haas, David Nalbandian and Fernando Gonzalez.  At least Phil Mickelson no longer headlines the golf list, but remember Colin Montgomerie never did the trick.
• Scary symmetry at USC football camp.  In the third day of practice last year, Mark Sanchez dislocated his kneecap, which probably derailed USC's chances at a national championship.  Yesterday, again USC's third practice, incumbent QB Aaron Corp had his knee rolled up on.  He missed a few plays, but it appears that he'll be just fine.  Corp has had no time to feel the pressure of the new season because rookie QB Matt Barkley is putting the full-court press on Corp's starting spot.  Pete Carroll has never changed quarterbacks during a season, except for injury, but Barkley is putting himself in a position to capitalize on any Corp misstep.

Scroll down to the next post, which links to my interview with LeBron James in case you missed it...

• And the MooreSports honesty challenge winner is...Bronson Arroyo.  He came out and said that his name might be on the list of positive PED tests from 2003.  In this day and age, he qualifies as Mother Teresa in the truthfulness department.  As I expected, the response to his admission of guilt was indifference.  With these setroid cases, journalists are after the scoop.  They want to get the stubborn player (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens), who refuses to just admit to it.  Nobody has the moral high ground to judge the guys who took it just to keep up with the rest of the field.
• From a biased perspective, it annoyed me that the Mitchell report only focused on the two New York clubhouses as if it was not a league-wide problem.  Considering Senator Mitchell was part owner of the Red Sox, his findings conveniently targeted Boston's rival and managed to leave out any culpable players from his beloved team.   With the positive tests surfacing from David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo and the two Red Sox security guys, it's clear that Boston was no better than any other team during this era.  However, they were no worse and it would be nice if the non-Northeast media did their job as well.
• Sticking with the Red Sox, some have criticized the Victor Martinez trade because it forces Terry Francona to juggle the lineup on a daily basis to keep everyone happy.  One, that's his job!  Two, it's really not that complicated.  If Martinez plays first, Mike Lowell sits and the Red Sox are slightly better offensively and significantly worse in the field.  If he's the designated hitter, he's negligibly better than David Ortiz.  But if he catches, their lineup lengthens out and becomes so much more dangerous.  Martinez is a tremendous upgrade over Jason Varitek in the batter's box.  Varitek is the captain, but if Francona is smart, he'll be more of a coach than a player in the postseason.
• The Chicago White Sox are too all or nothing at the plate.  If I had a blog three years ago, I would have blasted GM Kenny Williams swap of Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome.  It's not that Thome is not a good player, but that one move changed the nature of the ChiSox offense.  They replaced their World Series winning style of little ball with aging sluggers that clog up the basepaths.  Plus, they became a much worse defensive team, which made their pitching suffer.  As an example of their all-or-nothing style, Thome is 4/24 in his career against CC Sabathia.  All four hits are homeruns.
• I've witnessed two cycles this season, Orlando Hudson on opening day for the Dodgers and Melky Cabrera yesterday.  It may not seem like much but consider that the Yankees have thrown two perfect games and a no-hitter since their last cycle (Tony Fernandez in 1995).  They are a rare commodity, especially when you need a triple in your last at-bat like Cabrera (thank you Jermaine Dye for taking an adventurous route in the outfield).
• Sometimes I need to gloat a little bit.  I stuck to my guns that Roy Halladay would not be moved by the trade deadline and I was right all along.  Teams want to make moves, but they don't want to give up anything to do it.  The biggest moves were made by Boston (Martinez) and Philly (Cliff Lee), but they gave up middling prospects to snare their big fish.  Pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Kyle Drabek and Joba Chamberlain may never be as good as Roy Halladay, but they are a decade younger and millions cheaper.
• I really hope the San Francisco Giants make the playoffs.  The National League may be worse than the AL, but a foursome of Philly, L.A., Chicago and San Francisco would make for some compelling October drama.  The other three teams can easily outhit the Giants, but the pressure that Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain can put on an opposition in a short series is immense.
• Quote of the day: Tennessee Titans RB LenDale White on how he lost 30 pounds this offseason, "I really got to be honest.  It wasn't a lot of major diet changes.  (It was) watching what I drink.  I was a big Patron consumer..."  The man shed 30 lbs. by eliminating tequila from his diet!  I would say that counts as a big consumer. 
• Football training camp stories are ridiculous.  They're always positive until the season starts and we remember that playing well in practice as opposed to games is just slightly different.  My favorite headline the other day: Romo, Ware look good in Cowboys camp.  What could Pro Bowl QB Tony Romo and NFL sack king DeMarcus Ware have possibly done in a few short days of practice to change anyone's impression of who they are as players?  They're the best two players on the team!  Of course they look good running around in shorts.

Joba tonight, Andy tomorrow, I feel like a kid again...

• Mark Buehrle is this generation's David Wells.  He was born to throw a perfect game.  He throws strikes and works quickly, so when he's on, his games develop more momentum than the average pitcher.  Most forget that "Boomer" Wells took a perfect game into the 7th inning just a few weeks after his perfect game in 1998.
• How often does a guy throw a perfect game and he's almost outshined by his teammate?  Considering the context, DeWayne Wise's homerun saving grab is the second best one I've ever seen to Endy Chavez for the Mets in the NLCS.  It was one of those plays that will live for eternity on clips shows and White Sox highlight reels.  Nice call by Ozzie Guillen sticking him in the right spot at the right time.
• Since I missed you yesterday, I never commented on Manny Ramirez's dramatic pinch-hit grand slam on Manny bobblehead night into Mannywood.  One MooreSports reader compared it to Kirk Gibson's blast to which I have to say, "Let's pump the brakes."  But ManRam has always seized the moment and he did it again.
• The team that replaced Ramirez made a trade for Adam LaRoche this week, which tells me two things.  One, Theo Epstein does not trust Mike Lowell's health.  And two, the Red Sox know that their lineup is a gamble going into the postseason.  It's not that they can't win it all with this group, but they would need to get hot at the right time.  They only have two hitters, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, that produce consistently.  The rest of the lineup is prone to streaks and cycles.  LaRoche won't fix that, but he's another option.
• Matt Holliday will make a difference in St. Louis.  Not just because he's a solid player, but he will thrive in the protective shadow of Albert Pujols.  He'll see more fastballs in a week hitting next to Pujols than he has all season in Oakland getting protected by the likes of Scott Hairston and Orlando Cabrera.
• Raise your hand if you care that Tim Tebow was not a unanimous 1st team selection in the SEC.  Anybody?  Define slow news day...
• Peter King moment: I had a nice weather-laden bumpy approach into JFK yesterday.  It wasn't that bad except the flight attendant casually mentioned, "The captain has asked us to sit down early, so please put your tray tables and chairs in the upright position and if there' s an emergency evacuation, LEAVE EVERYTHING BEHIND."  What!?!  Is that a possibility?  Can you elaborate?  Are we landing in the Hudson?  Nope, no other comments just "Run for your life if the plane is on fire!"
• I have to keep it short today as I'm writing this post at the Yale Club, an institution so elitist and snobby that you have to wear a coat and tie to use the common areas.  I'm wearing a tee-shirt and jeans, so I'M OUT!    

Earthquakes and power outages...what California does best!  Power is back on and so am I.

• The Braves know something about power outages, their offense has not hit all year.  However, their rotation consists of Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Javier Vazquez.  The Mets have Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and trash.  The Phillies have Cole Hamels and looking for a trade partner.  The Marlins have Josh Johnson and prospects.  Atlanta should win this division unless Philly pulls off a deal for Cliff Lee.
• Does anyone have a theory on why Jimmy Rollins is not hitting?  J-Roll's "slow start" (.205 BA) has lasted until almost midseason.  I'm a Rollins fan, but they need him to wake up and fast.
• The Blue Jays looked like they were destined to fall apart when Roy Halladay went on the 15-day DL, but rookie Ricky Romero (say that three times fast!) steadied the ship.  Toronto took a losing streak into yesterday's game against the surging Rays and again Romero stepped up and halted the skid.  The young lefty has six consecutive starts of at least 6.1 innings and he has not given up more than 3 earned runs in an outing since May 31st.  That's impressive consistency from a 24-year-old.
• White Sox 3B Gordon Beckham looks like another special rookie.  He is 12 for his last 21 with 6 RBI in his last six games.  He is just 22!!!  And, he's sparked the ChiSox to a 5-game winning streak that's put them back in the AL Central discussion.
• Clayton Kershaw is another startling phenom.  At just 21, Kershaw is pitching to a 3.49 ERA and he has only given up 63 hits in 87.2 innings in 2009.  However, the Dodgers are a cinch to make the playoffs and likely advance deep into October, so they need to start managing Kershaw's innings now.  He only pitched 107.2 innings in the big leagues last year, plus another 61.1 in AA.  He better be under 200 innings going into the postseason or they will see the effects next season.  The Dodgers are winning now, but they are built for the future and they need to protect that foundation.
• Simple metaphor: starting pitchers are distance runners and relief pitchers are sprinters.  Phil Hughes is throwing 96 MPH out of the bullpen when he was only around 93 as a starter.  Joba Chamberlain has seen his velocity dip as a result of moving into the rotation from the pen because he only has so many bullets and he wants to save them for the important moments.  Mystery solved.  Here's another stat to hammer home the point: with no one on base, the league is hitting .298 off Chamberlain; with runners in scoring position, he holds opponents to a .224 BAA.  He brings his A stuff when it counts.
• I anticipated my Wimbledon problems yesterday and it went even worse than I expected.  The Pacific time zone was treated to TWO SETS of live tennis (the first two sets of Djokovic/Haas).  Then, we got a taped delayed snoozefest between Federer and Karlovic on NBC, while ESPN2 was blacked out.  Once NBC's three-hour window ended, ESPN2 came back on to reveal Andy Roddick's press conference detailing the classic five-setter that we were not able to see.  And the cherry on top, the first question Roddick answered was about playing Andy Murray in the semis, which ruined the result of that match.  I say again, thank you NBC.  Thank you very much!
• During an ESPN interview yesterday, Kurt Warner casually mentioned that many of his Cardinals teammates have let "complacency" set in after their surprising run to the Super Bowl last year.  This would be a good time to mention that Super Bowl runner-ups have missed the playoffs in 8 of the last 9 tries.  In other words, don't bet on the Cards to buck the trend.
• LeBron James effects everything, including this Summer's free agency.  Carlos Boozer and others have decided to hang tight to their current contracts because there are few buyers in this market.  The economy is down and the list of free agents next year is so appetizing that everyone wants to stay under the cap and take a shot at James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the rest. 
• The Pistons gave up Chauncey Billups to clear cap space, suffered through an awful season with Allen Iverson, fired their coach and now they are filling their cap space with Charlie Villanueva (lazy) and Ben Gordon (small and no D).  I guess they realized that no prime free agent will have any interest in moving to the disaster that is the "Motor City".  If Joe Dumars wasn't a Pistons legend...
• There is a girl on the new Real World: Cancun (oxymoron) named Ayiiia.  Yes, I spelled that right.

"Kazmir to DL; Percival to retire?, Price Called up"

More or less, that is the headline making the rounds this morning and it sums up the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays. 

The Rays did very little in the offseason.  They replaced veteran DH Cliff Floyd with veteran DH Pat Burrell.  They kept their bullpen intact and called upon the enigmatic Jeff Niemann to replace the enigmatic Edwin Jackson in the rotation. 

The theory was that the Rays made it to the World Series despite impactful injuries to Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and Troy Percival, so they should win it all if those guys stay healthy.

The template they should have been using was the 2005-06 Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox won the World Series in '05 for one simple reason: starting pitching.  They had the same five starters make every start all season long and throughout the postseason.  Think about how rare that is. 

The following year saw major dips in the performance of all five hurlers.  Jose Contreras (4.27 ERA) led the staff, but he was just 13-9.  Mark Buehrle completely fell off with a 12-13 season and a 4.99 ERA.  In layman's terms, they were tired.  In sports karma terms, magical seasons don't happen back-to-back (the ChiSox finished in 3rd place in the AL Central in 2006). 

Of course, we have seen many teams go back-to-back or even string three titles together, but they all added pieces to refresh the whole.  The 1998 Yankees had the perfect season (125-50).  But in the offseason, they traded their best pitcher (David Wells) for Roger Clemens.  After winning the '99 series, the Yankees were stale in 2000 until they traded for David Justice, who carried them to another ring. 

The Rays have lost their luster in 2009.  Evan Longoria is raking, Carlos Pena is slugging, Carl Crawford is running and Jason Bartlett has become the best shortstop in the American League.   But B.J. Upton has not found his groove after offseason surgery (.188 BA), Dionner Navarro's OPS is down from .757 last year to .530 in '09 and the acquisition of Burrell has been negligible (.250 BA with 1 HR). 

But the real story for the 22-22 4th-place Rays is pitching.  James Shields and Matt Garza have taken the ball every five days just like last year and posted comparable numbers.  But Scott Kazmir appears to be feeling the wear and tear as he's headed to the DL after a dismal (7.69 ERA) start to the season.  Andy Sonnanstine's finesse style leaves him no room for error, but he's clearly not making the big pitches in 2009 (6.60 ERA up from 4.38 last season).  Niemann (4.97 ERA) has done a decent Jackson (4.42 ERA in 2008) impression, but he's hardly injected life into the Trop.

The Rays need a spark.  Until the trading deadline, which may be too late in a division featuring the Yankees and Red Sox, Joe Maddon's last hope is David Price.  The rookie left-hander has 14 career regular-season innings under his belt, but he's also closed out an ALCS Game 7.  He has electric stuff, which is good because he needs to put a charge into his team and the building (the Tropicana Dome had a 19-minute power outage this week during a game).

The 2009 Rays tried to pick up where the 2008 Rays left off, but the magic did not carry over.  There only chance is to chart a new course and it starts with young Mr. Price.

Big game, big trades, big Thursday, let's get to it:

• Context: Cavs vs. Magic Game 1 was basketball played at its highest level, so any criticism needs to be put in perspective since only one team can win the game.  LeBron James was extraordinary, but he was a ball-stopper in the 4th quarter.  The ball was glued to his hands and he tried to go 1-on-5 every time.  He should be involved in every crunch-time possession, but he does not need to dominate the ball on every play or he will wear down. 
  
• I have no problem with James kicking it out to Delonte West for the game-winner.  He missed the shot, but it's just Game 1.  In Game 7, LeBron needs to bear all responsibility, but he cannot win a championship without trusting his teammates.
• Hedo Turkoglu has 26 assists in his last two games.  Remember, Orlando is playing without All-Star PG Jameer Nelson.  Rafer Alston is not a creator, so while Hedo has not shot the ball consistently well (41% for the playoffs), he has embraced the on-court leadership role. 
  
• Rashard Lewis showed a different kind of confidence last night.  He was sure the ball was going down every time it left his hand in the 4th.  Remember my keys to the series, "Who Blinks First?", in regards to the Lewis/Anderson Varejao match-up.  At least in crunch time, Mike Brown has to concede.  The Cavs should play Varejao, James, West, Mo Williams and Wally Sczerbiak or whoever his hot down the stretch.  They cannot keep up with Lewis and Turkoglu running pick-and-pop if "Big Z" and the floppy Brazilian are both out there.
• Mickael Pietrus changed the dynamic of the Boston series and he was a star last night for Stan Van Gundy's squad.  Even better, he's kept J.J. Redick parked on the bench.
• Why does Dwight Howard pick up so many silly fouls?  He was fantastic last night, but there's no reason to foul out when you're guarding a finesse big like Ilgauskas. 
  
• The refs were particularly awful last night.  I thought when Reggie Miller retired, they would stop calling that ridiculous fling yourself at the player who just left his feet on a pump-fake play.  Instead, they gave Turkoglu an absolute gift with under two minutes to play.  If the defender enters the offensive player's space then fine, but Hedo could have easily taken his normal jump shot and instead suckered the suckers into blowing their whistle.
• As we said last week, the NBA is a star-driven league and the four brightest were on display in the two Game 1s.  The numbers: LeBron James (49 pts., 8 asts. and 6 rebs.), Dwight Howard (30 pts. and 13 rebs.), Carmelo Anthony (39 pts.) and Kobe Bryant (40 pts.).  Not bad, not too bad at all!
• Jake Peavy to the White Sox!  It's up to Peavy who has a full no-trade clause.  If he has any type of competitive instinct, you would think he would relish the opportunity to go from the no-chance Padres to the division contending White Sox.  Chicago (AL) has been bad this year (17-22), but this is the type of galvanizing trade that will have them in first place by the All-Star break.
• David Ortiz hit a homerun last night.  How about that?
• Chris Carpenter will determine the NL Central race.  He threw five shutout in his return to the mound last night and if he returns to Cy Young form, he'll push them to at least the Wild Card.
• Updating a previous MooreSports story, former Indy leaguer Chris Jakubauskas pitched six scoreless frames last night and earned his third win of the season.  For a 30-year-old rookie, it's all about sticking.  As long as he continues to get the ball every five days, he gets to continue living the dream.
• Great Lost theory from my "nerd-alert" wife: Jacob's satanic foil has embodied every ghost on the island.  Remember, they always say "dead is dead", so the ghosts (and I think the "Smoke Monster") are all that guy.  Can you think of a time where a ghost did something good?  Mr. Eko died following his brother's ghost.  Shannon died because of the whispers in the jungle.  Christian's ghost told Locke to kill himself and Ben's daughter's ghost told him to follow Locke, which led to him killing Jacob.  What do you think?