Where we are, where we thought we would be and where we think we're going...

NL East

Leader - Atlanta Braves

Prediction - Philadelphia Phillies (4.5 games back)

Projection - Atlanta Braves

The Phillies had a bizarre first half, but they could rally back to win the division if they make a trade for another starting pitcher and they get healthy.  I picked the Braves as the sleeper of the NL, so I'm hardly surprised by their Spring surge, although it did not look to good when they were getting no-hit every other night in April.  If they can keep getting production from their infield (Martin Prado, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones), they have enough pitching to close the deal.

NL Central

Leader - Cincinnati Reds

Prediction - St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 game back)

Projection - St. Louis Cardinals

I thought the Reds were a year away with Edinson Volquez on the shelf and Aroldis Chapman in the minors, but they have the best offense in the National League led by Joey Votto and the resurgent Scott Rolen.  However, St. Louis is just a game back.  Once Tony LaRussa sorts out his bullpen, the Cards star power will overpower the division.

NL West

Leader - San Diego Padres

Prediction - Colorado Rockies (2.0 games back)

Projection - Colorado Rockies

Like most "experts", I had the Padres buried in last with their two stars (Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell) donning new uniforms by next month.  Instead, they've used a no-name pitching staff and a giant ballpark to stifle offenses in the year of the pitcher.  Nevertheless, the Rockies and even the Dodgers and Giants have so much more talent on paper that someone will chase down the Pads in September. 

NL Wild Card

Leader - Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies

Prediction - Atlanta Braves

Projection - Philadelphia Phillies

The Braves were considered a sleeper when I tabbed them to take the wild card, but now they are a division leader.  While I like the Rockies to take the NL West, I'll settle on the two-time defending NL champs to grab the final playoff berth.

AL West

Leader - Texas Rangers

Prediction - LA Angels of Anaheim (4.5 games back)

Projection - Texas Rangers

Typically, I'd ignore the Rangers strong start because they tend to fade as the Texas heat wears them down late into the Summer.  However, I'm encouraged by Josh Hamilton, who is back to his '08 dominance, and the trade for Cliff Lee.  In the long run, they'll likely regret giving up Justin Smoak for a rental, but Lee should secure their first division title in over a decade.

AL Central

Leader - Chicago White Sox

Prediction - Chicago White Sox

Projection - Chicago White Sox

I was not looking so smart after an ugly start, but they've rebounded behind consistent pitching and a top 5 MVP half from Alex Rios.  With Jake Peavy on the sidelines, the Twins and Tigers are ready to pounce, but GM Kenny Williams is always active at the trade deadline.  He'll bring in a starting pitcher to fill the hole.

AL East

Leader - New York Yankees

Prediction - New York Yankees

Projection - New York Yankees

They are not nearly as exciting as last year's team, but they are better.  They've won a major league leading 56 games to this point behind pitching, power and defense.  Their starting rotation has accounted for a ridiculous 48 wins, which means they are getting deep into games and holding leads. 

AL Wild Card

Leader - Tampa Bay Rays

Prediction - Boston Red Sox (3.0 games back)

Projection - Boston Red Sox

With all the injuries, maybe it's not the Red Sox year.  On the other hand, they can only get healthier in the second half.  The Rays are better on paper than practice.  They have too many all-or-nothing bats plus suspect team chemistry.  Whoever does better at the trade deadline will emerge from this two-horse race.

Playoffs

In the preseason, I went Yankees over Red Sox and Rockies over Phillies.  I'll stick with my two World Series combatants, but now I like Yankees over Rangers and Rockies over Braves.

In the end, the Yankees should win one more for George.

Midseason Awards

AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera is putting up triple crown numbers, while Alex Rodriguez (preseason pick) looks old.

NL MVP - Joey Votto

He won't hold out, but he's holding up better than Chase Utley (my pick).  Pujols should win another one with a strong finishing kick.

AL Cy Young - David Price

The young lefty could wear down as he reaches new innings heights, while Jon Lester (preseason pick) will be in the thick of it.  CC Sabathia is known as a dominant second half pitcher, which is a scary thought considering he already has 12 wins.

NL Cy Young - Ubaldo Jimenez

I know wins are an overrated stat, but 15 at the break is absurd.  Jimenez has shown signs of cracking, so look for Josh Johnson to steal the award away.  I picked Roy Halladay in my preview.

AL Rookie - Brennan Boesch

The Tigers call-up has slugged his away into the middle of their lineup and the top of the rookie standings.  I'll stick with my preseason choice, Neftali Feliz, to maintain dominance throughout the season.

NL Rookie - Jaime Garcia

The Cardinals pitcher has been greatly overshadowed by the NL's star-studded rookie class.  He'll lose out in the end to Jason Heyward (my preseason pick) or more likely Stephen Strasburg.

AL Manager - Terry Francona

Considering the injuries and the horrific start, he has the Red Sox in a prime position to catch the Rays and/or the Yankees.  Ozzie Guillen (preseason pick) will get his fair share of votes.

NL Manager - Bobby Cox

Some national writers suggested that a lesser known manager would have been fired based on the Braves April.  There is a reason that Cox is not a lesser known manager.  My preseason pick will take the award in his final year. 

Ubaldo Jimenez (one of four no-hitters) has paced the field in the year of the pitcher.

Follow me on Twitter for your weekend updates without Seth Meyers...

• I'm so glad the NBA Playoffs took a break last night.  I needed a breather, so I can refocus on two non-competitive series.
• Kobe Bryant has played 78 minutes in the first two games, while Steve Nash has played only 64.  Nash is pretty good.  Alvin Gentry should consider giving him some run.  If you like Goran Dragic so much, play them together.  The Suns defense cannot get any worse.
• As the Magic stare down a sweep, we should probably acknowledge LeBron's efforts to push the Celtics to a Game 6. 
• Doug Collins makes sense in Philadelphia.  He was a hard-nosed player for the 76ers, so he'll understand the city's culture.  The NBA loves retreads though.  Once you are in the club, it's impossible to get out.  Collins is the Buck Showalter of the association.  He laid the groundwork for championship runs in Chicago and Detroit, but he's never tasted much success himself.  He did win gold in the 1972 Munich Olympics.  Oh wait, never mind...
• At the quarter mark of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays have a 4.5 game lead on baseball, 5 on the Yankees and 8.5 on the Red Sox.  However, watching them up close for two days, they pitch and field at a championship level, but they'll need more from their lineup.  Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford are their only elite hitters.  Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton are all or nothing guys that will struggle in the postseason.  And, the bottom of the lineup is filled with outs like Dioner Navarro, Gabe Kapler and Reid Brignac.  They need Ben Zobrist to wake from his slumber and either Pena or Upton to return to their powerful form from two years back.
• I was wrong about the Red Sox.  They can hit a little.  They rank third in the American League in runs scored.  Once Jacoby Ellsbury comes back, they'll have a better lineup than the Rays.  Josh Beckett has just killed them.  If he comes off the DL with his old stuff, which I doubt, the Yankees better watch their back.
• On SI.com this morning, Tom Verducci is trying to sell the rise of the National League.  Sorry, I'm not buying.  The Reds were in first place yesterday when they gagged a 6-run 9th inning lead to the lowly Braves.  The Padres are in first place without one starting pitcher that would be in competition for a rotation spot with the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays.  The Phillies are elite, the Cardinals and Rockies are dangerous and everyone else is playing out the schedule. 
• Do you know how I really know the NL sucks?  Chan Ho Park.  As a reliever with the Phillies last year, he gave up ZERO homeruns in 38 games.  In just five games in the AL East this season, he's already given up five.  He has no game plan.  He lobs the ball over the middle of the plate and hopes that it is hit at someone.  If you're pitching for the Phillies, the only team who can hit homeruns in the NL, that's a brilliant idea.  Here ya go Mets!  Hit it as far as you can Nationals!  As for facing the Rays, Park went wall, wall, homer against the first three batters faced last night.  Paul Quantrill tried the same thing a few years back.  In his two years with the Dodgers, he had ERAs of 2.70 and 1.75.  And then he came to New York, hello 4.72 followed by a 6.75 and goodnight. 
• Michael Kay has said "See ya!" about 8,673,452 times in his career.  Would it kill him to mix in "Somebody get me an Italian boat because that ball is GONNNNNNN-DOLA!!!"?  Maybe if Francisco Cervelli hits a homerun?
• Brandon Knight is smarter than the system.  The high school senior is one of the top college basketball players in the country.  He is headed to Kentucky next year, but he is not signing a Letter of Intent, which is a binding contract.  Instead, he signed a financial aid pact, so he can leave if John Calipari jets to the NBA.  (Side note: How could he not trust Calipari's word???)  If you're a player who is desperate for a scholarship, this route does not work, but they're not going to give away Knight's scholly.  Well played...
• By getting all the best recruits every year, Calipari is indirectly balancing out the college hoops landscape.  Kentucky will be loaded with talented freshmen next season, but they have nothing else.  They'll be good, but like this year, they'll fall short at the end.  If these kids were dispersed among UNC, Kansas and Michigan State, the rest of the country would have no chance.
• When someone like Floyd Landis or Mark McGwire confesses to something that the entire country already knew about it, we should have a name for it.  I'm thinking we call it a Lance Bass or maybe a Clay Aiken.
• Have you heard the "Hoarse Whisperer"?  Classic clip.
• The Champions League Final will be aired live in HD on network television for the first time here in the States.  Curt Menefee (interesting choice) will have the Saturday call for Fox alongside Eric Wynalda.  Inter Milan and Bayern Munich are probably not the best two clubs in the world, but they were the best at finding ways to win this year.  Inter is tactically superior led by manager Jose Mourinho.  Munich could have easily gone out in the 2nd round, but they have produced a seemingly endless supply of magic led by Dutch winger Arjen Robben.  If you want to focus on one player, watch Inter midfield maestro Wesley Sneijder, who will team with Robben for the Netherlands in South Africa.  I'll take Inter 2-0.
• I don't know what's going to happen on Lost Sunday, but I do have a prediction for the final scene.  Jack and Sawyer or Locke will be sitting on the beach staring out into the ocean as the ghosts of the entire cast walk up behind them.  Just as Jacob needed to be replaced, I think the "Man in Black" will need to be replaced as well assuming they send him back to his hole.  The scales have to stay balanced, so either Kate dies, which turns Sawyer evil or Locke does not die, but he's stuck on the island.  Either way, the bad guy turns to Jack and says, "Do you know how badly I want you dead?"  Jack says, "Yes."  Bad guy, "I will find a way to kill you."  Jack says, "I know."  The cast of ghosts comes out of the forest...and for one last time, LOST hits the black screen.  Something like that anyway.  

I found this quote from Season 1: "There are two sides, two players. One is light, the other is dark."  Locke explaining backgammon to Walt. 

Yesterday, Bill Simmons mocked Matt LaPorta in a tweet: "Matt LaPorta: 76 plate appearances, 1 RBI. That's amazing. Is he starting for my 9th place League of Dorks team? Of course."

From a production standpoint, we should not even know who Matt LaPorta is, but all baseball junkies remember him as the biggest prospect in the trade that sent CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers.  Sabathia was the best pitcher in baseball for three months, led the Brewers to the playoffs and netted them a draft pick or two after leaving for New York in free agency.  As Simmons so subtely pointed out, LaPorta has done nothing, but he's still on the Sports Guy's fantasy team because we were all told that he was the next big thing.

The elite teams in baseball have the luxury of treating the other 75% as a glorified farm system.  When the Red Sox needed a bat last Summer, they dialed up the Indians who shipped Victor Martinez over for prospects.  When the Phillies needed an ace, Cleveland obliged with Cliff Lee.  The Indians are symbolic of how the lower sector lives in baseball.  They need to use their top assets to make shrewd trades that bring in young kids who will hopefully grow together into a championship team. 

However, here is the Indians haul for three of the game's best players: LaPorta (.214 BA with 1 RBI), Zach Jackson (9.35 ERA), Jason Donald (AAA), Jason Knapp (A), Carlos Carrasco (8.87 ERA), Lou Marson (.211 BA), Bryan Price (AA), Nick Hagadone (High A) and Justin Masterson (5.40 ERA). 

As Jim Brockmire would say, "This poop is brought to you by Antonio's Pizzeria.."

All three trades are within the last three years, so the players are still young enough to develop into franchise builders, but in the meantime, Indians fans are left watching Sabathia, Lee and Martinez dominate the league with other teams.

There is hope.  Once upon a time, the Houston Astros made a deadline play for Randy Johnson, who was that year's Sabathia or Lee.  In exchange, they sent Seattle Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen who would help form the foundation of a 116 win team.

Quick aside, the Astros shouid have been the team of the last decade.  They were the first franchise to set up an academy in Venezuela to develop players.  Because of that, they had Johan Santana, Bobby Abreu, Garcia, Guillen, Melvin Mora and Richard Hidalgo come through their farm system.  Of that crop, only Hidalgo did significant damage with the big club.  They lost Santana in the minor league draft, Abreu in the expansion draft and cut Mora.  

The lesson: Scout your own system harder than anyone else's system.

The Marlins have perfected the prospect haul, which is how they remain competitive despite flagrantly shortchanging their fans.  Florida has won two World Series titles in their two decade existence, which is a return good enough to make a Cubs fan swear off Pabst Blue Ribbon.  

After winning the 1997 World Series, the Marlins appeared to sell off their players to the first taker.  Not true...

They traded ace pitcher Kevin Brown to the Padres for a haul that included first baseman Derrek Lee.  They flipped Al Leiter to the Mets for hard-throwing prospect A.J. Burnett.  

They sent a package led by Bobby Bonilla and Charles Johnson to the Dodgers for Mike Piazza who they quickly moved to New York for Ed Yarnall and Preston Wilson.  Wilson eventually netted them Juan Pierre and Yarnall brought in Mike Lowell.

They also waved goodbye to World Series hero Edgar Renteria and welcomed future closer Braden Looper.  Cliff Floyd was part of the '97 team, but he was eventually shipped to Montreal for Carl Pavano.

Later, they would reel in Brad Penny from the Diamondbacks for the mere cost of Matt Mantei. 

The Marlins were not perfect.  They traded Livan Hernandez, Robb Nen and Moises Alou for virtually nothing. 

They also did not fleece anybody, except for the Dodgers.  Brown helped the Padres to the '98 Series and Leiter and Piazza led the Mets to the '00 "Fall Classic".

However, five years after their firesale, they beat the almighty Yankees behind Lee, Pierre, Lowell, Looper, Pavano and Penny along with a top prospect (Josh Beckett) and a couple veteran additions (Ugueth Urbina and Pudge Rodriguez). 

Baseball has the most inequity of any sport, but unless you're a Pirates fan, you can see a successful blueprint for your franchise.  The Yankees buy World Series and the Marlins swap for them, while the Rays draft contenders.  The A's use formulas and the Red Sox settle for "pitching and defense" (love you guys!). 

Baseball seems top heavy at times with the Yankees and Phillies leading both leagues, but the Marlins are not far behind.  With Hanley Ramirez (the centerpiece of the Josh Beckett trade) and Josh Johnson (4th round draft pick), they'll be back in no time.

The Red Sox got Beckett and Lowell and two rings, while the Marlins got one of the best players in the game.  Baseball sounds fair to me.

The sports Emmys were handed out yesterday.  It was an honor not to be nominated.

• Ryan Howard is buying dinner tonight and every other night that I don't have dinner with him.  Is he worth $25 million per season?  He hit 200 career homeruns faster than any player in MLB history, so yes.  He won the Rookie of the Year and then followed it with the MVP and then three more top 5 showings.  He's improved his defense, concentration and physique (Jared helped there).  Only one problem, I cannot help but remember how easy it was for the Yankees to get him out in the World Series (.174 BA with 13 Ks in 23 ABs).
• If Howard is worth $25 million per season, what is Albert Pujols annual value?  "Let's start the bidding at $30 million..."  If his agent is smart, he'll use the length of Alex Rodriguez's contract combined with Howard's salary to create a 10-year, $300 million package for the game's best hitter. 
• By the way, Jayson Werth is now available this offseason for anyone interested in an outfielder with speed, power and defense.  I'm talking to you Theo Epstein unless you just can't get enough of watching Bill Hall flop around like a fish.
• Speaking of the BoSox, they used their pitching and defense strategy to nip the Blue Jays 13-12 last night.  If Boston does indeed make a high-profile trade, they should center it around Jonathan Papelbon before they consider shipping out Daniel Bard, who is a more intimidating closer right now than his decorated compatriot.
• In my time watching the Yankees, there have been three starting pitchers that were universally detested by the fans for their overall futility, Javier Vazquez, Jeff Weaver and Andy Hawkins.  When I was a little kid, I remember hearing that Hawkins lost a no-hitter, which I did not even realize was possible until that moment.  He was a peach.  Anyway, New York fans are often overbearing and somewhat delusional, but not in this case.  Check this stat out: the worst Yankees ERAs ever for a pitcher who logged 200+ innings for the club, 1.) Jeff Weaver 5.35, 2.) Javier Vazquez 5.28, 3.) Andy Hawkins 5.21.
• Speaking of crazy stats, who is the all-time San Diego Padres homerun leader?  You're wrong unless you looked it up.  Nate Colbert!  He clouted a less than historic 163 homeruns for the Pads.  Next up, Phil "The Juice Machine" Nevin, Dave Winfield and then the active leader Adrian Gonzalez,  While trading Gonzalez is likely in the future plans for the franchise, they should wait until he hits 28 more homeruns, so he can take his rightful place as the best slugger in San Diego history.  By the way, Khalil Greene is 9th on the list!
• Which division is the NFL's toughest?  Now that the Redskins have a quarterback, the NFC East has to be considered the deepest division, but I'm not convinced any of the four teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders next season.  The AFC East is dragged down by Buffalo, but if Chad Henne plays to his potential, the three-team race between the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins will be the most compelling to watch.
• Bill Belichick is sticking to a losing formula.  He won three Super Bowls with blue-collar one-heartbeat teams, but somewhere along the path, he chucked that formula.  Instead, he's convinced that he can collect talented players with character issues because the rest of the NFL won't touch those guys.  I guess it started with Corey Dillon, which paid Super Bowl dividends, but Dillon was more cranky than troubled.  Each year, the Pats lose more and more of their great leaders who helped assimilate these misguided talents and now the inmates are close to running the asylum.  Yesterday, a report surfaced that Florida TE Aaron Hernandez dropped to the Pats in the 4th round due to "multiple failed drug tests."  He'll fit in perfectly with the new era Pats, but they have not won a playoff game in two years.
• The Knicks passed on Brandon Jennings, who is the best player on a competitive playoff team, for Jordan Hill, who will not be the best player on the Rockets summer league team.  Of course, New York has Toney Douglas, so who needs a point guard?!?  Donnie Walsh a.k.a. "The King of Wishful Thinking" has me concerned going into the biggest offseason in franchise history.  If he misses on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, does he settle for the Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer perennial #4 seed combo?  How much more losing can Mike D'Antoni take?  How much more can the fans take?
• I no longer feel good about my Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals pick.  They can't finish off a team led by Jennings, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and John Salmons.
• If you don't steal home-court advantage away in the first four games of a series, it's hard to get it at this point.  The Blazers will likely go seven with the Suns, but I don't think they can knock off Phoenix in the desert again.
• I understand that MVP voters like to validate their importance by NOT voting for the obvious candidate, but anyone that picked Dwight Howard over LeBron James should keep it a secret for the moment.  Howard is way too good and way too experienced to let the Bobcats sucker him into a 9.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg series, in which he only averaged 26.5 minutes per game due to foul trouble.
• Avatar on DVD!!!  Return to Pandora, except this time do it on your crappy little television, which has only two-dimensions, so you can concentrate on the unoriginal story and subpar acting.  Avatar!!!!
• Friday Night Lights returns to NBC next week.  They are really rolling out the red carpet.  While watching 30 Rock, I noticed that they gave FNL a whole 3-second promo during a commercial break.  I'm sure that moved people off the fence.  

I had never season a show turn over a cast and not skip a beat until this season of FNL.  You will embrace East Dillon, I promise.

Draft leftovers, NBA Playoffs show a pulse and I don't know just read the thing...

• If you missed the season, but watched the draft, you'd think that 29 of the 32 teams were happy with their quarterback play.  Of course, I watch all the games (RIP "El Guapo's"), so I marvel week after week at how many bad QBs get reps at the sport's highest level.  Going into next season, Trent Edwards/Brian Brohm (Buffalo), Jason Campbell (Raiders), Matt Cassel (Chiefs), Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks), Jake Delhomme (Browns), Dennis Dixon (Steelers), David Garrard (Jaguars) and Alex Smith (49ers) are set to start opening day, which I guess is cool with those teams. 
• Over three days of debate, I never once heard an on-field argument against Jimmy Clausen.  He threw 28 touchdown passes to only 4 interceptions last season.  Works for me...
• The Browns passed on Colt McCoy approximately 14 times before selecting him, so if he turns out to be a good one, they don't deserve that much credit. 
• The three winners: Detroit, Seattle and Oakland.  The Lions had the best 1st round of any team.  Despite picking #2, they nabbed the best player in the draft (Ndamukong Suh) and snuck back in to steal Jahvid Best, who is equally as explosive as C.J. Spiller. 
• In my neck of the woods, Pete Carroll might have rubbed some people the wrong way, but in doing so, he showed the Seahawks fanbase that he's willing to play the cutthroat game that it takes to win in the NFL.  Without any sentiment, he grabbed the best left tackle (Russell Okung), the second best safety (Earl Thomas) and maybe the most talented player in the 2nd round (Golden Tate).  In addition, he used his Pac-10 knowledge to grab DB Walter Thurmond III, who missed his Senior year at Oregon with an injury, but would have been a top prospect otherwise.  Plus, he got Leon Washington and LenDale White for nothing in trades.
• Lastly, Al Davis must officially be Bernie.  The Raiders are propping him up, but somebody else is making the decisions.  Rolando McClain will be the new leader of what's shaping up to be one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They got workout warrior OT Bruce Campbell in the 4th round when many expected him to be their first selection.  While I'm not a big fan of Jason Campbell, he is strangely a good fit for Oakland.  He throws the deep ball well, has good feet and does not need to be developed, which is this franchise's greatest shortcoming.
• The draft losers: Denver, Jacksonville and Buffalo.  Josh McDaniels spent all weekend trying to prove that he's the smartest person in the room.  He better be or he'll be the smartest TV analyst in two years.
• Jacksonville drafted four straight defensive linemen that jumped out at nobody but them.  They followed that with an anonymous running back and a kick returner.  Did Rachel Phelps buy this team?  They drafted like a franchise looking to be relocated.  "This guy here is dead."  "Cross him off then."
• The Bills came into the draft with two obvious needs, QB and OL.  They did not address either problem until round 5.  Instead, they drafted the only position that they have covered, speed back.  I'm not a Marshawn Lynch fan, but he and Fred Jackson are passable.  I'll buy you a sandwich if you can name one Bills offensive lineman without looking it up.
• The NFL and MLB are better overall products than the NBA, but the association treats us to individual performances that the other leagues cannot match.  In potentially his farewell performance, Dwyane Wade rose to the occasion Sunday.  He scored 46 points in 43 minutes on only 24 shots.  If he had not missed 5 free throws, he could have dropped 50 on a Celtics defense that only had eyes for him.  Wade is a special player, but his shelf life is shorter than most because he's always taken a beating in Miami.  He needs to think about himself this Summer and jettison Miami unless they get him Chris Bosh.
• While the Cavs are plainly a lot better than the Bulls, LeBron James still used Sunday to make the loudest statement of his career.  He has been the best player in the league for a couple years now, but he's never played with the anger or intensity that he brought to Chicago Sunday.  After seeing his demeanor, there was no safer bet in sports this century than the Cavs over the Bulls in Game 4. 
• As I tweeted Sunday, James pulled up from midcourt and drained a three at the quarter buzzer.  We've seen him make crazy shots before, but this was different.  The moment he let go of the shot, he started posing for his celebration.  How could anyone be good enough that they are sure a half-court shot is going down once the ball leaves their fingers?  I'm now convinced that the Cavs are going to win this tournament. 
• In sports, we see so many inspirational examples of teams rallying around fallen teammates or coaches that we almost take it for granted.  In Denver's case, I assumed that they would "win it for George Karl."  On the contrary, they are completely lost without their head coach.  Carmelo Anthony is doing his best, but the fight is clearly missing from this Nuggets team.
• Deron Williams is cementing his position as one of the game's elite players.  Despite injuries to Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur, Williams has shouldered the load and controlled the series from Game 2 on. 
• The Lakers will probably overcome the Thunder because Oklahoma City is bound to throw a game away once they realize that they actually can win this series.  However, THEY CAN WIN THIS SERIES.  Last year, the Lakers screwed around with the Houston Rockets in Round 2 until burying them in Game 7.  If you remember though, Yao Ming missed the back end of that series, so the Lakers knew that they were not going against live bodies that could stick with them when they hit their finishing kick.  If nothing else, the Thunder are live.
• Watching Chauncey Billups try and guard Deron Williams is sad, but watching Derek Fisher try and stay in front of Russell Westbrook is downright laughable.  In boxing, they say your power goes last.  For Fisher, he has lost everything that he once did well, but he can still make an open shot.  Phil Jackson has to decide whether or not Fisher's shooting ability overrides his turnstile defense.  Of course, it would not be an issue if they had another three-point shooter....
• ...which brings us to Ron Artest.  Trevor Ariza shot 49.7% from the field in the 2009 playoffs and 47.6% from three.  Ron-Ron is making a dazzling 30% of his shots, including a brick-laying 13% from distance.  Mitch Kupchak has been crapping golden eggs for two years now, but he overplayed his hand this Summer.  Artest is an off the bounce offensive player.  He has never been a catch and shoot guy, which he's making abundantly clear with his postseason display. 
• When the Spurs started really showing their age a few years back against the Suns, Robert Horry checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table and flipped the series.  If the Lakers start to feel truly insecure, do not discount the possibility that Artest, Josh Powell or Fisher could body slam Westbrook on one of his olympic leaps to the hoop.  The Lakers will win this series thanks to their experience and getting dirty is one possible method.
• The Spurs and Mavs are both veteran teams, so they are not afraid to get dirty.  Add Jason Kidd to the list of veteran point guards, who is getting taken to the cleaners.  George Hill looks like the only pair of fresh legs in this series. 
• Tim Duncan went 1/9 and scored only 4 points on Sunday...in a winning effort.  If they keep winning, we should see more DeJuan Blair spelling the clearly worn down Duncan.
• Despite Dwight Howard's constant foul trouble, which really should not be a big problem at this point in his career, the Magic have responded well and surprisingly taken care of their business against Larry Brown's Bobcats. 
• Both my parents had the same meniscus surgery that Brandon Roy had and they were back running in a week.  He should be fine in the short term.  Long term, the wear and tear will be a problem.  
• Avery Johnson should be the next coach of the New Orleans Hornets.  He has strong ties to the city.  He showed promise during his time in Dallas, which he's undoubtedly learned from.  And, he's happy to build his team around a point guard, which is a necessity given Chris Paul is their only hope.
• As I mature (sort of), I push myself to retry things that I did not like when I was a kid.  Particularly with food, my palate has developed and I like nearly everything save for a few texture issues (Jello...).  So, I opened my mind to giving Javier Vazquez another shot.  I don't know if it's texture, but it's still not working.  He is afraid of his fastball, so he nibbles around the strike zone.  He's constantly in bad counts.  He works slowly.  Basically, he's Daisuke Matsuzaka, who I have been mocking for years now.  If an NL GM was smart, they'd make a decent offer for Dice-K, who would probably put up Vazquez like numbers in the NL. 
• David Price wins the April Cy Young.  He is the best pitcher in the American League right now in terms of stuff.  If he can stay healthy and continue to grow in confidence, he'll make the Rays the AL favorites. 
• Has anyone noticed that the Angels cannot run anymore?  Their best base stealer is Erick Aybar, but he's never swiped more than 14 bags in a season.  Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Howie Kendrick run occasionally, but they have become a typical American League lineup.  They took two of three from the Yanks this weekend thanks to increased team patience and clutch power from Kendry Morales.  
• The Padres 11-7 start is bad news for the Red Sox or anyone else hoping to land Adrian Gonzalez.  If they stay competitive until the trading deadline, he won't be on the market.
• Community and Modern Family are waging quite a war for the best comedy on TV.  Community wins with originality, while Modern Family takes the writing prize.  What's your vote?

Like Jello, Javier Vazquez makes me want to gag.  "It's gettin' late early" in his second Yankee career.

After a seven month preseason, the NBA season is set to finally begin this weekend.

• Thanks to some horrific refereeing on a non-foul call on a Kevin Durant shot, which even ended in a rare apology, the Oklahoma City Thunder will open against the top seeded Los Angeles Lakers.  Durant is set to win his first scoring title tonight.  He made a whopping 157 more free throws than any other player in the league (LeBron James was 2nd), which has been a point of contention recently.  "I thought we was playing Michael … Jordan tonight, the way he was getting the whistle," Kevin Garnett said. "Durant damn near shot more free throws than the whole team."  Phil Jackson is already working the officials, "Yeah, by the calls he gets, he really gets to the line a lot, I'll tell ya.  There's a couple plays in the last game where I was pretty curious how he got there."
• As an addendum to that last stat, Durant only shot 24 more free throws than Dwight Howard and 62 more than James.  But, he makes 90% of his freebies, so he's really being punished for his proficiency. 
• Bill Simmons wrote an entire national column the other day on how lazy and washed up Rasheed Wallace is.  Last night, Joakim Noah, whose energy is irrepressible, made the Celtics front line look like they were playing in cement.  Miami is a decent first round match-up for Boston because they can draw up a good defensive scheme to corral Dwyane Wade, but if they were playing any youthful team in the league, I'd pick against the Celtics.
• Rajon Rondo is the lone bright spot left for that franchise, but even he looked completely overmatched against Derrick Rose (career high 39 points last night). 
• The Nuggets are one of the teams I root for when the Knicks are non-competitive (the last decade), but Denver is toast.  Unless they draw Portland in the first round, they will be one and done.
• Tomorrow, I'll break down each first round series, but today let's hand out some Moore Sports hardware.  And by hardware, I mean words on a computer monitor.  Nobody's getting anything.
• MVP - LeBron James,  2.) Kevin Durant, 3.) Dwight Howard.  If James does not win it all this season, he should make a fresh start because the Cavs are going to look stale halfway through his next contract.  Durant gets the edge over Kobe Bryant because he does much more for his team's success.  Howard gets the edge over Bryant because his team had more success and I like big men.
• ROY - Stephen Curry, 2.) Tyreke Evans, 3.) Taj Gibson.  Curry and Evans did basically the same thing.  They put up gaudy numbers for awful teams.  However, Curry gets the nod because his efficiency is so impressive for a rookie.  He made 43% of his threes despite the adjustment from college to the pros.  Brandon Jennings has greater stats than Gibson, but the Bulls needed every ounce of Taj's sweat to grab the last playoff spot.  Plus, I'm totally biased.
• COY - Nate McMillan, 2.) Scott Brooks, 3.) Alvin Gentry.  I continue to drive the McMillan bandwagon in Portland.  How did they win 50 games with a team that was decimated by injuries all season?  Coaching.  Brooks gets 2nd billing for the Thunder turnaround behind Durant and Gentry deserves credit for not screwing up Mike D'Antoni's work in Phoenix.
• Speaking of awards, with all the "One Shining Moment" hubbub, I never handed out the "2nd Annual Brian Cardinal Award."  I figure we do it like Augusta National, so Tyler Hansbrough should be there to pass it on too...(drumroll)...(this is exciting)...(instead of a green jacket, maybe like an old tweed jacket)...Villanova's Scottie Reynolds.  The eternally overrated guard was a Wildcat for an eternity.  He burst on the scene as a Freshman scoring 15 pts. per game, but then proceeded to have the same exact season for three straight years.  Of course, once he was written off, he goes coast-to-coast as a Junior and beats Pitt at the buzzer to send Nova to the Final Four.  As a Senior, he "turned over a new leaf", which means his numbers improved because he had outlasted all the talented guards in the Big East.  Then, he was suspended for the first half of their tournament game against Robert Morris and was unceremoniously dispatched by St. Mary's.  Honestly, he was famously average.
• Da'Sean Butler is the runner-up.  The West Virginia star began his career chucking threes for John Beilein and ended it nose-to-nose with Bob Huggins.  He seemed like too good of a kid to mock though.
• To all our Brian Cardinal Award nominees, please graduate and do something else.  As for next year, if Kyle Singler comes back, he's the prohibitive favorite.
• Brandon Marshall makes the Dolphins the new Jets.  Miami has a talented young quarterback (Chad Henne), a solid running game and a strong defense.  They just needed one game-breaking receiver to open up the field offensively.  Voila!  Plus, Bill Parcells has a good track record with egomaniacal receivers. 
• Two good decisions made by ESPN yesterday, the ESPY's will be a live show this year and Seth Meyers will host.  While he's no Justin Timberlake, Meyers is also not Samuel L. Jackson, so we'll call it a win. 
• I heard yesterday that the most loyal Mets fan I know has switched allegiances to the Angels until the Wilpons sell the team.  If I had to watch Oliver Perez pitch every five days, I'd be in a padded room, so switching teams seems much safer for his mental health.  Bottom line, the Mets built themselves a brand new empty ballpark with this team and ownership.
• The Blue Jays are off to a 6-2 start behind budding ace Ricky Romero.  Romero is for real, but the Jays are not.
• The NL power is clearly in the West.  The Phillies are +28 in run differential for the season (Dad, that means they've scored 28 more runs than their opponent).  The other four NL East teams are in the negative.  The Cardinals are +18, but the other five NL Central teams are in the negative.  All five NL West teams are in the positive, although the 3-4 Padres did it all in one game (17-2 win over Atlanta).
• I was ranking the best current TV theme songs/opening credits on Twitter the other day: 1.) Friday Night Lights, 2.) The Pacific, 3.) Fringe (80's Episode).  Any additions?
• While I was soundly beaten for my Lost love story theory last week.  Last night's classic episode did nothing to prove me wrong.  Hurley found his long lost (creepy!) love.

    Hansbrough is actually looking to high-five Reynolds for joining the illustrious club.

In order of predicted finish...

1. Colorado Rockies

Strength - Prime Timing

The Rockies are loaded with talent in or about to hit the sweet spot of their careers.  Troy Tulowitzki is ready to take the mantle as the game's next great shortstop.  Carlos Gonzalez is a five-tool talent in the outfield.  Jeff Francis is back from injury to resume his role on the Rocks mound as the next Andy Pettitte.  Ian Stewart is ready for a breakout season at third base.  In 2007, they surged to the World Series ahead of schedule.  In 2008, they succumbed to expectations.  Last year, they rebuilt the foundation for what should be a pennant contender in 2010.

Weakness - Guaranteed Pitching

As my favorite baseball saying goes, "Guys tend to do what it says on the back of their baseball cards."  However, the Rockies young staff does not have many lines on the back of their cards.  They have five solid arms in the rotation, but no guarantees of health or consistency.  Huston Street went down with an injury in spring training, which could expose the back end of their bullpen.  Again, they have the talent, but will it come together?

2. San Francisco Giants

Strength - Starting Pitching

Along with the Cardinals and Mariners, the Giants have one of the top duos in the game to anchor their starting rotation.  Tim Lincecum is special.  Matt Cain has overcome his youthful inconsistency to be a second ace.  If Barry Zito were paid a normal amount, he'd be considered a solid #3 in the National League.  Jonathan Sanchez showed he has no-hitter stuff and they have more arms coming from the minors.

Weakness - Lineup

When will ownership start to take this team seriously?  They have a lights-out staff, great fans and an awesome park.  If they bought a hitter or two, they'd be the premier franchise in the NL.  Pablo "Kung-fu Panda" Sandoval is solid, but everybody else is average at best.  Aubrey Huff was the big offseason signing!  Has Huff ever finished out of last place in his career?

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Strength - Lineup and Bullpen

I was dead wrong about the Dodgers last season and I could be again this year.  They have the best lineup in the division and possibly the NL.  Manny Ramirez could do anything, good or bad.  Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are turning into perennial all-stars.  Russell Martin's career fell off the wagon a few years back, but James Loney and Rafael Furcal provide some pop in their infield.  Although Jonathan Broxton is an old-school flamethrower closer without much finesse or location, they still have the best pen in the NL.  George Sherrill was a big pick-up at last year's deadline.

Weakness - Starting Pitching and Ownership

I hated their staff going into last year, but their weakness did not materialize until the final months when Chad Billingsley completely fell apart.  If Billingsley comes to his senses and Clayton Kershaw can take a full load, they won't be terrible on the mound.  Nevertheless, Vicente Padilla is their Opening Day starter.  The Dodgers have chemistry and ownership issues.  From the outside looking in, they are loaded with players that raise character red flags.  Joe Torre is adept at handling a clubhouse, but does GM Ned Colletti have the resources to fix problems as they arise?  The McCourt's divorce will hang over the franchise like a black cloud in 2010.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

Strength - Talent

Once dubbed the "NL Worst", this division is now loaded.  The Diamondbacks could finish 4th or win the thing because they have elite talent all over the field.  Brandon Webb and Dan Haren could be on the list of top duos if Webb returns to full health.  Justin Upton is one of the bright stars in the game and 3B Mark Reynolds quietly slugged 44 homeruns last year.  Plus, they made a positive trade in the offseason to bring in Edwin Jackson, who will help eat innings, and Ian Kennedy, who could flourish in the NL. 

Weakness - Youth

They are a year away.  Webb needs a season to get back to Cy Young form.  Upton needs to be a more consistent run producer.  They ALL need to strikeout less.  If they made a late run at a Wild Card, I would not be surprised, but they could also put themselves in too deep of an early hole.

5. San Diego Padres

Strength - Ballpark

If they were the Chargers, they would have been shipped to another town in the last couple years.  While the Bolts are likely going to bolt unless they get new digs, the Padres put out a minor league product in their relatively new PetCo Park. 

Weakness - Everything other than...

Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.  Gonzalez will be in a Red Sox uniform before long, while Bell will likely close games for a contender by the Fall.  If I did the research, they probably have some young talent, but why should I care if their ownership doesn't?

Ranking the Division's Best

Best Lineup

1. Dodgers - Lineup and bullpen are like Torre's final Yankees teams.

2. Rockies - I love their bench with Jason Giambi, Melvin Mora and Ryan Spilborghs.

3. Diamondbacks - All or nothing...

4. Padres - Adrian Gonzalez.

5. Giants - Pathetic...

Best Rotation

1. Giants - They are locked and loaded for years to come.

2. Diamondbacks - All depends on Webb...

3. Rockies

4. Dodgers - Kershaw could move them up this list.

5. Padres

Best Bullpen

1. Dodgers - Not Torre's strength though...

2. Rockies - Street changed their team last year.

3. Giants

4. Padres - Bell is an elite closer.

5. Diamondbacks - Chad Qualls is not an elite closer.

Best Manager

1. Dodgers - Torre needs to hold the franchise together.

2. Giants - Always been a Bruce Bochy fan...

3. Rockies - Can Jim Tracy repeat his midseason magic?

4. Diamondbacks

5. Padres - Not Bud Black's fault...

Fantasy Sleepers

1. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers - Career 3.74 ERA, but 17-17 record.  Just needs luck...

2. Edwin Jackson, SP, D'Backs - Solid AL pitcher should get the NL boost.

3. Ian Kennedy, SP, D'Backs - If he's healthy, he's a polished prospect. 

4. Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies - He could be this year's Mark Reynolds if he makes more contact.

5. Fred Lewis, OF, Giants - Terrible '09, but he has the tools to break out.

Troy Tulowitzki is ready to be the face of this division.

Baseball has never been the parity game.  Unlike football, there is no salary cap.  Unlike basketball, lottery picks don't often swing the balance of power.

Baseball teams are built on good, deep farm systems, which are used to augment high-priced free agents or lure top trade targets.

Having an owner with deep pockets or a big market that pours money into the ballclub is the easiest way to win.  However, as Michael Lewis famed book Moneyball proved, smart money can be just as effective as big city money. 

The last sentence describes the competitive balance in baseball the last decade in which Florida, Minnesota, Arizona, Oakland, Cleveland and Colorado have succeeded, while Baltimore, Washington, Texas and Chicago (NL) have largely failed. 

Here are some sentences that will determine the next decade of World Series winners: For sale!, We quit, Take the money and run...

After listening to Buster Olney (one of the best baseball writers in the business) yesterday, it sounds like many owners are using the economy's failings as an excuse and throwing in the towel. 

While this Winter's free agent pool is fairly shallow, the trade market will be flush with high-priced superstars available for basically the price of their contract.  The list of buyers is short (Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Giants and Cardinals). 

The list of out-and-out sellers is growing rapidly.  The Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Padres have given up.  On another list, we have the A's, Marlins, Rays, Jays, Orioles, Nationals, Royals, Twins, Diamondbacks and Indians, who are hoping to win thanks to a smart front office and a few scattered bucks.

Where are we headed?  Dream teams.

Forget the Yankees for a moment, who always try and fill their roster with 25 all-stars.  Look at the Phillies, who have star caliber players at 1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF and RF.  They love their catcher Carlos Ruiz and they'll likely fill third base with a big name like Chone Figgins.  With Cliff Lee, J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek and Cole Hamels, they can build a stud rotation or deal for another ace like Roy Halladay. 

How about the Mets?  They already have big money sunk into Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez.  No matter.  They can fill left field with Matt Holliday and first base with a trade target like the Reds Joey Votto or the Tigers Miguel Cabrera.

Basically, if they're willing to spend money, they can have anything they want.  Even more than that, they won't have to spend that much money.

For years, Scott Boras quoted a price and his free agent would not settle for a penny less.  Last year, he quoted 4 years, $100 million as Manny Ramirez's basement.  He signed for 2 years, $45 million.  Boras will be seeking 4 years, $40+ million for Johnny Damon this offseason.  According to Olney, the Yankees will offer 2 years, $15 million.  If the Yankees are not overpricing players, where are they going to go?

Let's stay with the Damon example and go through our dream team list. 

At best, teams value Damon as the third most attractive free-agent left-fielder behind Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.  The Mets will snare Holliday.  The Red Sox will lock down Bay.  The Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Phillies do not need Damon's services.  The Mariners and Giants have expansive outfields that would limit Damon's short-porch power and expose his defensive deficiencies.  The Cardinals are on the dream team list, but they are still relatively frugal and would not offer Damon big money.  Either, he's a Yankee or his feelings are hurt and he settles for a one-year deal with another contender.

As for the Yankees, Brian Cashman wants to get younger and more athletic.  Damon does not fit that mold.  Curtis Granderson does and he makes $24 million over the next three years.  Why would the Yankees offer Damon more than $8 million per year if they can get Granderson for some marginal prospects?   

Dream teams. 

In two years, the Red Sox lineup could read like this: 1. Hanley Ramirez, 2. Dustin Pedroia, 3. Joe Mauer, 4. Adrian Gonzalez, 5. Kevin Youkilis, 6. Victor Martinez, 7. Jason Bay, 8. J.D. Drew, 9. Jacoby Ellsbury. 

Strikes.  Lock-outs.  Contraction.  It could all happen again if baseball does not get sound leadership (kidding, of course, it's Bud Selig, what could go wrong?). 

Baseball does not need a salary cap that would drive down the market and take money out of the pockets of willing owners and talented players.  They need a salary floor that will force the Pirates, Marlins and Padres to spend money or change ownership.

Modern baseball is an oxymoron.  If they don't modernize baseball, it'll turn into a niche sport that we tell our kids about when they come home from MMA practice.  

I won't be attending the Winter Meetings this season.  They moved from Las Vegas to Indianapolis, so I expect I'm not the only one taking a pass.  Anyway, here is your list of the best free agents, where they'll go and what they can do:

1. John Lackey, SP, 31

Lackey is a younger version of Andy Pettitte.  His stats are not ace-like, but he sure looks like an ace on the big stage.  He is a year younger than A.J. Burnett and should command a higher salary (5 years, $90 million).  With the Red Sox not in the market for a top starter, the Rangers and Yankees should duel for Lackey's services.

Prediction: Yankees

2. Jason Bay, LF, 31

Bay is older than I thought and according to the sabermetrics, a terrible defensive outfielder.  However, he is athletic (13 steals), patient (.384 OBP) and powerful (36 HR).  He's also proven he can hit in the AL, which is more than Matt Holliday can say.  The Red Sox will set a ceiling (4 years, $60 mill?) like they did with Johnny Damon years ago, but the Yankees won't overbid for Bay, who locks them out of Carl Crawford next Winter.  He could go to the NL, but where does Boston turn...Jeremy Hermida?  

Prediction: Red Sox

3. Matt Holliday, LF, 30

His 2009 performance should scare off the entire American League.  Yet, he will command a big salary (5 years, $80 mill?), so he can only go to the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies and Cubs.  He could really help the Giants or Braves, who are one bat away from NL domination.  The Dodgers and Phillies are locked up with Manny Ramirez and Raul Ibanez, while the Cubs have Alfonso Soriano's awful contract.  That leaves the Mets, but buyer beware, he does not seem like a New York kind of guy.

Prediction: Mets

4. Chone Figgins, UTIL, 32

Did you hear that crash?  That's the market falling off.  Figgy is a late-blooming utility player with great speed.  He plays a lot of positions, but he's settled into third base, which is unfortunate because he hits like a second baseman.  He would be a great fit to fill the Cubs hole at second base and move Soriano out of the leadoff spot.  But he's the Angels identity and they are the only team who would let him play third.

Prediction: Angels

5. Johnny Damon, LF, 36

Yes, he's 36, but unlike everyone below him on this list, he can actually help your team win games.  He hit the same number of homeruns as Holliday and he can do it on the big stage.  He needs to be on a winner, but he could help put a contender over the top.  Just a guess, but the Yankees will play hardball with him (offer no more than two years) and he'll take the money somewhere else.  The White Sox depth chart currently lists a black hole in left field with Carlos Quentin moving to the DH spot.

Prediction: White Sox

6. Adam Laroche, 1B, 30

He's only 30 and he hit 25 homers last season despite getting traded twice.  Plus, he's a good glove man.  In the non-steroid era, he's not a bad player.  The Braves need lumber and he's proven that he can thrive in that town.

Prediction: Braves

7. Nick Johnson, 1B, 31

He's a great defensive player and an on-base machine.  However, he cannot stay healthy, so he never gets into a power groove (20+ HR once, 2006).  If he could stay on the field, he'd be the steal of this class.  The Mets need him the most, but the injuries will scare them away.  The Red Sox could go bargain hunting if they fail to lure Adrian Gonzalez in a trade.  Billy Beane could be intrigued, but I'll say the Giants, who need an injection of offense everywhere.

Prediction: Giants

8. Rich Harden, SP, 28

He's still young enough to tease on potential alone.  He hit 140+ innings for the first time since his second year (2004) last season, so he's either learning to be durable or due to break down again.  No GM can afford to make him the big acquisition of their offseason because he's bound to embarrass them.  So, we're left with the Red Sox or Dodgers.  After last year's John Smoltz and Brad Penny debacles, Boston should look for safer ground.

Prediction: Dodgers

9. Mike Gonzalez, RP, 31

Brian Fuentes career ERA: 3.47.  Gonzalez: 2.57.  Fuentes career batting average against: .226.  Gonzalez: .209.  Fuentes career WHIP: 1.26.  Gonzalez: 1.22.  Fuentes free agency age: 33.  Gonzalez: 31.  Last Winter, Fuentes signed for $17.5 million over 2 years plus a third year option with the Angels.  If I'm Gonzalez's agent, I'm not settling for a penny less. 

Prediction: Phillies

10. Andy Pettitte, SP, 38

Yes, he's 38.  And yes, he's going back to the Yankees, so he's no fun to write about in a prediction column, but I cannot stomach putting a World Series hero behind the likes of Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltre and Erik Bedard on any list.

Prediction: Yankees (1 year, $10 mill guaranteed)

Now for the fun part:

Trade Targets and Ideas

The 2010-11 Hot Stove class includes Roy Halladay, Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Derek Jeter, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and Aramis Ramirez.  Basically, the balance of power in baseball could be shifted next Winter.  However, a smart GM will try and get out in front of that class by snagging a top gun in a trade.  3 ideas:

1. Boston Red Sox acquire Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez for RP Daniel Bard and prospects.

Boston has always viewed San Diego as a pipeline and the Red Sox will go to the well to pick-up the clean-up hitter that they desperately need.  The Padres don't want to pay actual money for baseball players, so they'll use their last chip to stock up on overvalued prospects.  Epstein can afford to lose Bard with Jonathan Papelbon in place.

2. New York Mets trade SS Jose Reyes to the Blue Jays for SP Roy Halladay.

This won't happen, but it should.  Reyes is a bad fit in New York, but he'd be a fun and relatively cheap piece to build around in Toronto.  Alongside Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, the Blue Jays would be decent.  Halladay is as good as gone after this season, so the Mets will need a negotiating window to lock him up.  In a spacious ballpark, Halladay and Johan Santana could own the National League.

3. New York Yankees trade SP Phil Hughes to the Rays for LF Carl Crawford.

Again, not gonna happen, but here me out.  If the Yankees sign Lackey, they'll have the top three in their rotation locked down with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.  Chien-Ming Wang will return midseason and Andy Pettitte is still in the mix.  The Yankees will move either Joba Chamberlain or Hughes to the bullpen.  As the postseason proved yet again, Chamberlain's stuff is far superior to Hughes.  Hughes projects as a middle of the rotation starter whereas Joba could be a potential ace or a replacement for Mariano Rivera when he retires.  With Ian Kennedy, Andrew Brackman and others earning big bonuses in the minors, why not flip Hughes for a 28-year-old left fielder who would hit homeruns in Yankees Stadium and obviously steal bases?  They can wait and get him as a free agent is the answer, but Crawford helps them win #28 in 2010.   

Now I'm moving, so we're sticking with the one-a-day plan until Wednesday when I will inundate your google readers multiple times daily.

• I'd say U.S. vs. Brazil lived up to the advanced hype.  The casual fans got their goals, the patriots saw their national team battle Brazil until the dying seconds and the soccer afficionados saw quality win out in the end.  If you were ever wondering where Brazil gets its reputation, it's because they can spin a 2-0 deficit into a 3-2 win without making it look miraculous.
• The counter-attack that led up to the Americans second goal was the best offensive movement I have ever seen from a U.S. side.  They looked like Arsenal or the Phoenix Suns in the way that they ran a fast break up the field and then Landon Donovan took his goal SO sweetly!  Truly world-class from a team that usually plays ugly soccer.
• When you play soccer as a kid and really up through high school, fullbacks are the worst two players on the team.  But at the highest level, they separate good teams from great teams.  All great teams see the same defensive strategy, pack it in the box and create a defensive shell.  The easiest way to break that down is to bring fullbacks forward and even out the numbers.  Brazil's Maicon tortured the U.S. from his right fullback position, but the Americans created their first goal on a great cross by Jonathan Spector, their right-sided defender.  Again, positive steps.
• In case you're curious, Tim Howard is our best player...by a lot.
• The Confed Cup is not the World Cup, but that was Brazil's best team and it was a Cup Final.  I'm calling that a moral victory, but credit to the U.S. players, they played to win the trophy.
• Mariano Rivera earned his 500th save last night.  He is not only the greatest relief pitcher ever, he is probably the best clean pitcher of his era.  Maybe Randy Johnson, but I would place Pedro Martinez (assuming he was clean) over "The Big Unit".  But Rivera was much more consistent than Martinez and he enjoyed greater postseason success. It's probably apples and oranges, but Rivera's consistent dominance will always be hard to put into perspective.  He is 39 and there are some signs of aging as he's given up more homeruns this season than any year since 2001 (the ballpark hasn't helped).  But he has 39 strikeouts and only three walks.  That's a 13/1 K/BB ratio (Papelbon's is 2.06/1, Nathan is 11.1/1). 
• Trevor Hoffman has 71 more saves than Rivera, but he has closed games for four more seasons.  Mo would have him beat, but only by a few if they were on equal ground.  Ironically, both closers have pitched for almost two decades with one real pitch, Mariano's cutter and Hoffman's power change-up.
• The Braves need a "Moneyball" hitting instructor.  They swing at everything.  However, if you look at the numbers, "Chipper" Jones is another guy that was completely overshadowed by the 'roided up sluggers of his era.  He's a first-ballot hall of famer that should be celebrated alongside Derek Jeter as the best clean all-around infielders of their generation.
• Torii Hunter was a huge pick-up for the Angels.  He gives them an edge and a leadership quality that was previously lacking.  Basically, he fills the gaps in Vladimir Guerrero's game and personality.  Mike Scioscia's club is ready to run and hide with the AL West.  If they can avoid Boston, they are a threat to make the World Series, but the Red Sox just own them.
• If Scott Kazmir comes back healthy, the Yankees will regret not burying the Rays in the Wild Card when they had the chance.
• Mock the Mets if you want to (I certainly enjoy it), but no team would win many games without their 2nd-4th best hitters.  Their lineup is David Wright and....anybody...'roid-less Gary Sheffield...anybody else...Bueller.
• A surprise-free Wimbledon so far but there are big showdowns to come.  I have a bad feeling about Andy Roddick today.  He's facing an enigmatic talent named Tomas Berdych, who has decided to play well this week. 

We're talkin' Lakers, pitching and depressing reality TV on the MooreSports Blog.  Don't forget to check me out on the ibnsports.com homepage where I'm hosting the iBNSports World Updates!

• The Lakers attempted 82 shots and 35 free throws.   The Nuggets attempted 86 shots and 49 free throws.  You are not going to win a road game when your opponent gets that many more opportunities.
• Thank you for playing Luke Walton!  His line: 13 minutes, 0 points, 6 fouls.
• The Lakers are done winning games in Denver, so they will either defend their home-court or go home for good.
• The most important person in this series for the Nuggets now is their trainer.  Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith need their legs and they all seem to be suffering in one way or another.
• No matter how many times Phil Jackson says it, Lamar Odom is not an X-factor in this series.  He is what he is.  About 8 points and 8 boards per game.  Trevor Ariza is the X-factor for the Lakers.  He's shown the capacity to step up offensively when he's hitting his three-pointers or he can be relegated to the bench when he's passing up open looks.
• Phil Hughes should demand a trade to the Rangers.  In his two career starts in Arlington, TX, Hughes is 2-0 with 14.1 innings pitched, 0 runs, 3 hits and 12 strikeouts.
• How have the San Diego Padres won 10 games in a row?  It's actually quite amazing because they have no offense outside of Adrian Gonzalez.  During the streak, they've won 5 games scoring three runs or less.  They've simply taken advantage of their pitcher's park by holding their opponent to two runs or less in 7 of the 10 wins.
• So, David Price was less than spectacular in his debut performance for the Rays lasting only 3.1 innings.  He seemed to inspire the offense, which exploded for 10 early runs to take a 10-0 lead.  It was 10-2 going to the 8th.  10-4 going into the 9th.  And 11-10 Indians when it was all over.  Grant Balfour, Jason Isringhausen and bad defense were the chief culprits. 
• You know your team has no offense when you lose a perfect game.  Chris Carpenter took a perfecto into the 7th, pitched shutout ball thru 8 and watched his team lose 1-0 in the 10th.  The two teams combined for 5 hits.  They played 10 innings in 2:26.
• If anyone has any good fantasy advice when it comes to closers, I'm listening.  I've been juggling Matt Capps, Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler and Troy Percival all season.  Do you know what they all have in common?  They are all shockingly awful. 
• I'm no marriage expert, but I know one thing for sure.  That Jon & Kate Plus 8 couple is not going to make it.  Not through the year, not through the month and likely not through the week.  My wife LOVES this show and I made the mistake of watching the premiere with her.  This guy is so strung out from the papparazzi and his nagging future ex-wife that he looks like he's ready to snap.  He's one more incident away from turning into Michael Douglas in Falling Down or Nicholas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas.  Either way, it's not good. 

The NBA is gettin' really good, pensive Peavy and Mark Sanchez bringin' back white jeans and baby tees:

• The Denver Nuggets are like a baseball player who takes his at-bats with him into the field.  When they are flowing on offense, they deliver the necessary energy to be an above-average defensive team.  But when they are cold (like the 1st quarter last night), they don't have the stomach to dig in and ride out the storm.  The good news for Denver is that the Lakers make every team comfortable on offense. 
• When talking about the Nuggets bench, I always included Linas Kleiza until the last series when he was benched by George Karl.  But Kleiza, like J.R. Smith, has always had the ability to pop up and score 20-30 points in a game.  He picked a good time to come to life last night, especially since Smith and Anthony Carter have struggled for the first two games.  Be sure of one thing, Kleiza can play, he's no fluke.
• After two games, it looks like Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant are going to cancel each other out in spectacular fashion.  The scoreboard reads 'Melo 73, Bryant 72.  So, the key becomes the #2 scorers.  Over two games, Chauncey Billups has trumped Pau Gasol 45 to 30.   Gasol has been far more efficient than Billups, but the Lakers need the numbers not the percentages from their other All-Star.  In fact, Kenyon Martin (31 points in two games) has topped Gasol.  If only the Lakers had Kwame Brown back...(KIDDING!).
• Game 3 will tell the story of this series.  If it's close like the first two, we're likely headed for seven games.  But if the Nuggets run the Lakers out of the Pepsi Center, the way that the Rockets did in Game 4 and 6 of the previous series, it's night-night for the Western Conference favorites.
• MooreSports poll (you don't have to vote, but think about it at least): Who is the greater physical specimen?  LeBron James or Dwight Howard.
• Jake Peavy negotiated a no-trade clause into his contract for a reason, so he has the right to activate it.  But I struggle with the idea of a 27-year-old pitcher content with lifestyle or competition.  My only thought is that his agent has convinced him that a National League team will trade for him before the Summer ends.
• Bye bye Blue Jays!  Toronto got off to a great start by avoiding the powers in the AL East.  Unfortunately, they are now 1-5 this season against the Yankees and Red Sox with about 30 more games to go.  Here's a shocker: their one win came in the only game Roy Halladay pitched.
• If we're going to continue with interleague play, which I'm fine with, can we make it count for something?  The overall interleague play record between the two leagues should determine homefield advantage in the World Series.
• Quote of the week: Former USC LB Clay Matthews in regards to this sexually ambiguous Mark Sanchez photo, "I don't know if white jeans go over so well in America.  Maybe in Europe or other places, but they weren't sitting well with me.  But at the same time, he's in GQ and I'm not."
• In order to reclaim his manhood or maybe just because she's hot, rumors are swirling that Sanchez is hooking up with the model, Hilary Rhoda, that he did the shoot with.  God, I'm like Perez Hilton, but I don't draw on people's pictures.
• In case you missed it, here's the new LeBron/Kobe puppet ad that debuted last night:

As Yankee Stadium officially opens its doors for meaningful baseball...

• How much meaningful basketball will there be in Boston this Spring without Kevin Garnett?  "We're going to move on without him, " Doc Rivers said.  But how far?  They can survive a first round series, although I'd expect them to be pushed to six games by the Bulls.  They won't beat Orlando without KG.
• I'll be back this afternoon with my NBA playoffs predictions, but the Nuggets/Hornets and Rockets/Blazers series are the most intriguing first-round duels.
• Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker are not talented enough to be in the MVP discussion with the likes of Kobe, Wade and Lebron.  But in terms of value to their teams, they have been among the giants this season.
• I had a source tell me John Madden was going to retire this offseason, but I assumed he would take a final tour around the league to get showered in love.  But I guess he's as understated as he comes across and will ride off into the sunset with little fanfare.  Madden never bothered me and often contributed small, but poignant insights.  He was a comfortable listen and he'll be missed in the booth.
• I mocked Greg Paulus as an NFL QB prospect yesterday, but he's an intriguing match with Rich Rodriguez and Michigan.  He buys them some time to develop their younger options and he's intelligent enough to pick up the offense quickly.
• Before it happens and I start rationalizing, let me again go on record and say that Braylon Edwards to the Giants frightens me.  He fills their red zone need to perfection, but he has chronic problems with drops.  The pressure of New York will likely only exacerbate the issue (see Chuck Knoblauch).
• Christiano Ronaldo is the best soccer player in the world.  He rescued Manchester United with a wonder strike against Porto yesterday.
• Two cycles (Orlando Hudson and Ian Kinsler) and two near no-hitters (A.J. Burnett and Tim Wakefield) have made for an exciting start to the baseball season.  Also, hot starts from the Mariners and Padres are impressive considering how little support they were given from their front office's this offseason.
• Here's my one thought on the Stanley Cup Playoffs: Find the hot goalie.  No one is giving the Rangers a shot against Alexander Ovechkin's Capitals, yet all experts agree that goalie Henrik Lundqvist is vastly superior to his Washington counterpart Jose Theodore.  The Rangers might not have enough to overturn their offensive deficiencies, but there will be other upsets fueled by the same formula.

Here's the Best and Worst from the NL Worst West:

Best Offseason - ...Hmmmm.....zzzzz....No winners here

The Dodgers did well to win their pissing contest with Scott Boras and they locked up Rafael Furcal.  There's just one little thing they forgot about...PITCHING!  They let Derek Lowe and Brad Penny walk and replaced them with Randy Wolf.  Be serious!  The Giants were one Matt Cain-for-Prince Fielder swap away from being the clear favorite, but they did not have the money or guts to really pursue a bat.

Worst Offseason - San Diego Pades

They have one position player that would play for every major league team, 1B Adrian Gonzalez.  The rest of team is up for grabs.  It's only a matter of time before they deal Jake Peavy and hit rock bottom.

Best Lineup - Los Angeles Dodgers

With ManRam back in the fold, the Dodgers are locked and loaded.  Furcal can set the table and they are bound to have a breakout season from any of the following: Matt Kemp, James Loney or Andre Ethier.  Russell Martin showed his youth last year, but he'll comeback strong in 2009.  Orlando Hudson will help their defense, but Juan Pierre must remain parked in the dugout.

Worst Lineup - San Francisco Giants

It's no fun to pick on the pathetic Padres, so let's go after San Fran's pop-gun lineup.  I'm sure the whole league is quaking in their boots at the thought of facing the fearsome 3-4 duo of Freddy Lewis and Benjie Molina.  With all that pitching, it's irresponsible of the Giants front office to not put a better product on the field.

Best Rotation - Arizona Diamondbacks

This is really close over the Giants.  Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum are a draw.  Dan Haren is an upgrade over Matt Cain.  The back end of the DBacks rotation (Doug Davis, Jon Garland and Max Scherzer) are much more dependable than the Giants'.  Although, San Fran's pitchers (Randy Johnson, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez) have much more upside.  Haren swings it in Arizona's favor.

Worst Rotation - Los Angeles Dodgers

The Rockies are pretty bad too, but they don't have the Dodgers resources.  Hiroki Kuroda is their "ace."  I wish I could make those quotes look more sarcastic.  Clayton Kershaw and James McDonald are talented youngsters, but they will have way too much pressure on their shoulders this season (see: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy from the 2008 Yankees).  Chad Billingsley is the only dependable starter assuming he can get over his disastrous postseason.  

Best Bullpen - Colorado Rockies

This is really slim pickings, but I'll go with the Rocks and their two experienced closers, Huston Street and Manny Corpas.  Taylor Buchholz has solid numbers as a middle man, so maybe they can hold a lead if they ever get one.

Worst Bullpen - Los Angeles Dodgers

They let Takashi Saito walk away for nothing and replaced him with Jonathan Broxton.  Of course, they don't even believe Broxton has the mental fortitude to be a great closer.  He's a classic over-thrower when the pressure is on and they'll miss him in his more comfortable 8th inning role.  Hong-Chih Kuo could be a savior, but Joe Torre will be sure to burn him out by July.  

Best Player - Manny Ramirez, Dodgers

As Manny proved last year, this division is so weak that one player can win it by himself.  He is that player.  Lincecum and Webb are the only other real difference makers.

Worst Player that Matters - Barry Zito, Giants

San Francisco could win this division on pitching alone if Zito can get out of his own head.  He's not a steroid guy and he's in a pitcher-friendly park in a pitcher-friendly league.  There is no excuse for a 10-17 record in 2008 with a 5.15 ERA.  He's only 30 and he's a former Cy Young award winner.  It's kind of sad actually.

Best Manager - Joe Torre, Dodgers

He worked his magic last season by bringing together a divided clubhouse and embracing Manny's personality.  He still can't handle a bullpen, but it's not his fault if this team gets bombed nightly with the pitching he was provided.

Worst Manager - Clint Hurdle, Rockies

One incredible hot streak changed everything for Hurdle's career.  But he's well-under .500 in his seven seasons as the mile-high skipper.

2009 Final Standings

San Francisco Giants - Just a gut feeling that they'll make a trade to get over the top.

Arizona Diamondbacks - They could be this year's Rays if Justin Upton and co. play to their potential.

Los Angeles Dodgers - A less motivated Ramirez won't be enough to overcome their pitching woes.

Colorado Rockies - A bounceback season from Troy Tulowitzki would make things more palatable in Denver.

San Diego Padres - I feel bad for their fans.  Where's all that luxury tax money going? 

Here is the latest news from Vegas:

• Scott Boras may have to swallow his pride for the second straight season.  Last year, ARod put Boras on the shelf after he botched the opt-out announcement and this year, it looks like the super-agent overvalued Manny Ramirez.  Boras spent the month of November turning his nose up at the Dodgers initial offers for ManRam, but as it turns out, no one else wants him.  Today, Boras was quoted as saying that Ramirez is interested in returning to LA.  But don't expect the Dodgers to go anywhere near the $100 million asking price that Boras saw as a starting point.
• The big winner of the offseason may well be Derek Lowe.  The former Dodger is being linked with 5-year, $80 million offers.  He is 35 and more of an innings-eater than a stopper, but his dependability in comparison with A.J. Burnett and Ben Sheets has made him the most sought after hurler this side of CC.
• Theo Epstein was named "executive of the year" by Baseball America and he continues to make a lot of great moves for the Red Sox.  Boston is currently flirting with Sabathia just to annoy the Yankees, but it seems they are seriously interested in Mark Teixeira.  They should be!  The Red Sox are headed for lean times if they do not add a true middle of the lineup bat to protect David Ortiz.  They never replaced Manny and Big Papi is fading.  A move for Teixeira means Mike Lowell is on the outside looking in, but that's the kind of cold-hearted decision-making that makes the Patriots so good in Boston.
• It's just a guess, but I don't think Jake Peavy gets traded this offseason.  He has been consistently linked with the Cubs, but they are not desperate for another starter.  Peavy has been the Padres ace for so long that they are always going to value him more than the open market will.  In this type of situation, unless a desperate team arises like the Yankees if CC and Lowe go elsewhere, the Pads asking price will not be met.
• As yesterday's post indicates, I'm in complete agreement with the Mets pick-up of Francisco Rodriguez.  Frankie learned quickly that it was not a good market for closers and the Mets smartly took advantage.  They'd be even smarter to throw more big money at Brian Fuentes and make him their 8th-inning guy.
• The Indians bullpen had to have been a major disappointment for their front office last year, so I'm not surprised that they're ready to ink Kerry Wood.  Wood is more of a stop-gap until one of the Rafaels (Betancourt or Perez) revert to 2007 form.
• It looks like the Jermaine Dye trade fell through.  He'll get moved eventually, but for now, they want more than Homer Bailey's fallen star.
• Rafael Furcal is becoming one of the great mysteries of the Hot Stove season.  The shortstop rejected a 4-year deal from Oakland that many thought he would accept.  I know he has had some injury problems, but he is a heck of a player and still young.  At the right price, he might be the deal of the season.