On the eve of July 1 (NBA free agent D-Day), we take a look at how the NBA deck is about to be reshuffled.
Alpha Dogs
LeBron James, Cavs, SF
Stephen Colbert: "On July 1st, LeBron James becomes a free agent and I'm using free in the most expensive sense of the word."
James has a choice between loyalty (Cavs), winning (Bulls or Heat) and glory (Knicks). While he'll spend the week, weeks or month entertaining offers and pitches, he probably has his mind already made up. Winning championships is the best thing that he could do for his career and legacy, so rule out the Cavs and the Knicks. If he goes to Miami in the Dan Le Batard package with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, he'll guarantee passage to the NBA Finals plus he'll get a legitimate championship coach in Pat Riley (sorry Erik Spoelstra, your days are numbered), but he'll have to share his legacy and salary.
Instead, he'll choose Chicago. He's comfortable in the Midwest. He gets a max deal. He'll get championship caliber teammates, but he won't have to share the spotlight. From an ego standpoint, he's more comfortable being compared to Michael Jordan than a player from his own generation like Wade.
Prediction: Bulls
Dwyane Wade, Heat, SG
He's more of a recruiter than a free agent in this process as no one believes he'll change addresses. He's the only who would consider sharing salary with Bosh and James to create a South Beach dream team. More likely, he'll get his Pau Gasol in Chris Bosh with whom he shares an agent. With Riles on the bench and a veteran supporting cast, they could beat Bron's Bulls.
Prediction: Heat
#2 Max Men
Chris Bosh, Raptors, PF
He would be voted least likely to return to his old team. The Raptors are interested in a sign-and-trade, which means Bosh can get a max contract in Miami if they swap Michael Beasley. He could potentially go to Chicago for Luol Deng or Cleveland for Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson, but Bryan Colangelo is not dumb enough to take on wasted salary.
I don't see anyone taking less money to go anywhere in this convoluted dance. Bosh has been seen as James's caddy in this whole process, but Miami, max money and Wade is better than anything Bron can offer.
Prediction: Heat
Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs, PF
He's only worth talking about because he should be a #2. However, he's too loyal to Mark Cuban and Dallas, so he'll stay on as the reluctant alpha dog on a soulless team.
Prediction: Mavericks
Amar'e Stoudemire, Suns, PF
If Bosh goes with James somewhere besides Miami, Stoudemire will fill that Heat hole. However, under my scenario, there's no room for him on South Beach. Instead, he could take less money to be the scoring big man in Chicago next to Joakim Noah or take the money and run with New York. Just a gut feeling, the Knicks don't want him. He's a known quantity to Mike D'Antoni and he's not that interested. So, James will have his choice between Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer in Chicago.
Defensive-minded new coach Tom Thibodeau won't want Stoudemire, who will suddenly be left without a chair. He'll return to the desert with his tail between his legs.
Prediction: Suns
Cheaper Deuce
Carlos Boozer, Jazz, PF
He is not wanted in Utah, where they've already paid his replacement Paul Millsap, so we know Booze is on the market. He is not nearly as explosive as Stoudemire and he's a tad undersized for the four spot. However, he seems like a much better teammate for the brightest star in the league.
Boozer's defensive deficiencies will be covered by Thibodeau's system and Noah's activity. Unlike Stoudemire, he's a volume rebounder. James needs a complementary #2 man not a fake #1. Without Bosh, Boozer is his best bet.
Prediction: Bulls
Joe Johnson, Hawks, SG
In the best case scenario, he is really a #3 guy, but I'll continue to act under the assumption that no one is leaving money on the table. In that case, Johnson will be offered max deals by the Hawks and the Knicks.
Donnie "The King of Wishful Thinking" Walsh completely overplayed his hand. He wasted draft picks and potentially valuable expiring contracts to sell MSG on this free agent class. He's about to settle for a haui of Joe Johnson and David Lee. Sell that Donnie...
Prediction: Knicks
Paul Pierce, Celtics, SF
He opted out, so he has to be on this list because he would be a huge addition to any team. But honestly, he's not leaving Boston. He's the greatest Celtic since Larry Bird.
Prediction: Celtics
#3 as #2
Rudy Gay, Grizzlies, SF
He's a restricted free agent, but the Memphis cheapies won't match any decent offer. Gay is a scorer, but he was a disappointment in college and a complementary piece in Memphis. He needs to go to a good fit. If he's asked to do something outside of his comfort zone, he'll fail miserably.
The Clippers are a small forward away from a young, but complete starting five. Alongside, Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman, Gay could be a wing scorer who defers in crunch time.
Prediction: Clippers
David Lee, Knicks, PF
As a restricted free agent last year, he had no suitors. He'll get attention this time around, but he has been branded as a system guy. Plus, he's stated that he wants to go to a big city. If the Suns lose Stoudemire, he'd be a solid pick-and-roll power forward in Phoenix. He could also replace Bosh in Toronto. Are those big cities?
The Knicks are swapping first round picks with Houston next season thanks to the idiotic Jared Jeffries trade, so Walsh has pressure to put out a competitive team immediately. He cannot do that with Joe Johnson, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler alone. If you add Lee to that mix, maybe they steal one of the last two playoff spots.
Prediction: Knicks
Role Players on a Championship Team
J.J. Redick, Magic, SG
While he's a restricted free agent, he should be coveted by whichever team gets LeBron and/or Wade. He understands his shooter role and plays it to perfection. He's much tougher than he looks, so he could be this generation's Steve Kerr or Derek Fisher. Orlando knows this too, so they'll match any offer.
Prediction: Magic
Ray Allen, Celtics, SG
If he's smart, he'll leave Boston. They need him to do too much. At 34 and counting, he no longer has the legs to hound Kobe Bryant and knock down clutch threes. Instead, he should jump on board the James or Wade train to provide leadership and shooting.
Prediction: Heat
Recap
A dozen free agents that represent the perfect summer storm for the NBA. We've been talking about this seismic shift for two years. Now, we get to see what motivates the greatest players in the world.
Priority #1: Money
I would be shocked to see any player leave annual cash on the table. The Cavs can offer James an extra year, so technically, he'd be passing on $30 million, but he'll make that on his next contract. James, Wade and Bosh are not getting anything other than max deals. If Johnson, Stoudemire and Boozer have the chance, they'll take max deals as well.
Priority #2: Winning
Do you know what comes with winning? More money. Bigger sponsorship deals. Bigger playoff bonuses. Bigger legacy, which means more money after you retire. They want to win championships because they are competitors, but the spoils of winning are just as important.
Priority #3: Lifestyle
What cities are in play? Miami, Chicago, New York, Phoenix, Los Angles and Dallas. What franchises are getting left behind? Toronto, Cleveland, Utah and Atlanta.
Joe Johnson is the perfect example. He's been a good player in Atlanta for years now and 95% of American sports fans could not pick him out of a lineup. He can be a good player on a bad Knicks team and he'll triple his popularity and quadruple his visibility.
The NBA is about stars not parity.
We're potentially headed for five years of Eastern Conference Finals between the Bulls (LeBron James, Carlos Boozer, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah) against the Heat (Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Ray Allen and Pat Riley).
While that is a savory matchup, we could've had a third player if Donnie Walsh understood the terms foresight and patience. If the Knicks had used their bloated contracts to help other teams get out from under the cap this offseason, they could have ended up with a Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Danilo Gallinari and Mike D'Antoni quartet that would've topped the Bulls and Heat.
Bygones...
I'm shocked Donnie Walsh knows how to use photoshop.
